2026-10-30

Gold Market Analysis: "Gold Price Needs to Fall to $3,810 Before a Rebound is Likely"   October 30, 2026, 9:46 AM (Completed) Yesterday, the U.S. released its preliminary estimate of third-quarter GDP, showing an annualized quarterly growth rate of 3.4%, exceeding expectations of 3.2% and surpassing the 2.2% recorded in the second quarter—marking the largest increase since the fourth quarter of last year. Private consumption expenditures (PCE) contributed 2.52 percentage points to GDP growth, the highest contribution since the first quarter of last year, while private domestic investment added another 2.73 percentage points. Although net exports continued to drag down GDP by 3.32 percentage points, overall data still supported accelerated economic expansion. Additionally, the year-on-year rise in total PCE for September widened to 3.6%, while core PCE increased by 3.1% year-on-year. These figures support further Federal Reserve interest rate hikes, putting downward pressure on gold prices. In early trading in Tokyo today, gold briefly rebounded to $4,018.84 but quickly reversed course, falling as expected below the $4,000 level. The previous high from yesterday's rally was capped by the lower boundary of a prior sideways range, indicating that gold has entered a lower-tier volatility zone. Moreover, the $4,010 level lies along Gann’s 90-degree angle, forming a strong support (or resistance) point. If this level is confirmed broken, gold is likely to test $3,910 in the short term for initial support. However, this level is not robust; a stronger rebound may only emerge when prices approach $3,810. On the hourly chart, after breaking below the 20-period SMA (currently around $4,020) on Wednesday, gold has continued declining along this moving average, repeatedly failing to sustain gains upon testing it. Technically, gold faces three key resistance levels in the near term: $4,010, the 20-hour SMA, and the 50% retracement level of the largest decline since October 16 at $4,087.25. Traders anticipating a short-term bounce should watch the 20-hour SMA closely—only if gold breaks above and holds above this line can it potentially challenge higher levels. Conversely, the 20-hour SMA could also serve as an ideal short-term selling point. The above information is for reference purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

2026-10-29

Gold Market Analysis: "Rebound Ends as Gold Continues to Seek Bottom" – October 29, 2026, 11:07 AM The Federal Reserve voted 10-2 to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.75% to 4%. Fed Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack recommended a 0.25% rate hike. The post-meeting statement remained unchanged from September, but emphasized that the committee needs to accumulate more data before determining the appropriate policy stance. Fed Chair Waller stated during the press conference that economic indicators are moving in the right direction—strong consumer spending, robust capital investment, and healthy overall growth—but inflation remains too high and has stayed above target for nearly six years. He stressed the central bank's responsibility to bring inflation down. Regarding employment, the focus was primarily on price stability rather than labor market conditions, reflecting growing concerns about potential second-round inflation effects. Following the September rate hike, financial and credit conditions have begun tightening as expected. After the decision was released, interest rate futures showed a slight increase in the probability of a 0.25% hike in December, rising to 78.4%, though expectations for a 0.5% hike have now faded. Following the announcement, gold initially fluctuated between $4,025 and $4,067, then rose further toward $4,083 before retreating again. This morning, it dipped as low as $4,035 before rebounding to $4,069, followed by another test near $4,040. On the 15-minute chart, gold appears to be forming a narrowing triangle pattern. However, yesterday’s rebound peak approached the October 15 low of around $4,084.5, suggesting that gold’s reaction to the rate decision may have been manipulated. It also indicates that the rebound is likely complete, with prices poised to break below $4,000 for a deeper correction. Investors could consider placing stop-loss orders above $4,085 and sell on strength, targeting $4,000 first. The above information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.