Gold market analysis

"Gold Prices Consolidate in a Narrow Range, Awaiting a Breakout" 19/8/2025 10:06 Completed 

Yesterday, the gold price's performance was a "reversal of the Eiffel Tower pattern", with its maximum rebound being just over 38.2% of the largest increase since August 8th. It rose to nearly $3,358.5 in the Tokyo midday session before sharply retreating. It then continued to decline, reaching a new intraday low of around $3,331 after the London close. As there were no significant economic data releases in the US yesterday, the gold price gave up all of Monday's gains after surging. This suggests that gold market investors may have begun to prepare for the release of the minutes of the July interest rate meeting by the Federal Reserve at 2:00 am on Wednesday and the three-day Jackson Hole central bank symposium starting on Thursday. 

The market's interpretation of the weakening gold price is that Trump is preparing to hold talks with Zelensky, followed by the participation of EU leaders, and then arrange a meeting between the US, Russia, and Ukraine, which has slightly reduced the risk-averse sentiment. However, it is obvious that Putin and Zelensky each hold a tough stance. Zelensky has proposed to purchase $100 billion worth of weapons from the US to build a security guarantee, reflecting that Ukraine does not accept the so-called "land partition" proposal. The risk aversion triggered by the Russia-Ukraine conflict has not yet reached its final chapter! 

At present, the gold price is closely responding to various developments. I believe that investors have shifted their focus to the central bank's annual meeting. As for the meetings arranged by Trump, unless the positions of Putin and Zelensky change, even if Trump boasts of his success, investors do not need to pay too much attention. However, if the gold price shows a strong reaction, risk management must be done well. In the short term, from the hourly chart, the gold price is consolidating in a narrow range and seeking a breakthrough. The previous TD line's measured decline target of $3,328 has been reached. The gold price showed a bullish candle with a higher high and lower low in the Asian session this morning. Measured by the current TD line, if it breaks down, the target is $3,292, and if it breaks up, it will aim for $3,352. 

The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. 

MTF Special Analyst Zheng Guangfu