Gold market analysis

"Gold Price's Intraday Trend Fluctuates Downward" 8/9/2025 9:43 completed

The U.S. August employment data fell short of expectations, reinforcing market expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next week. The U.S. Department of Labor announced that non-farm payrolls rose by only 22,000 in August, far below the expected 75,000 and the upward-revised 79,000 in July. The unemployment rate also rose from 4.2% to 4.3%. The data reflects the continuous cooling of the U.S. labor market. FedWatch shows that investors expect an 88.1% probability of a 25 basis point interest rate cut next week.

The unsatisfactory employment data led to a sharp decline in the US dollar exchange rate across the board, and the gold price also rose sharply. The spot gold price rose to a high of $3,600, setting a new historical record. However, the holdings of the SPDR Gold ETF remained unchanged last Friday. However, data from the People's Bank of China shows that China's gold reserves reached approximately 2,302.28 tons at the end of August, an increase of about 1.87 tons compared to July. This marks the tenth consecutive month of increased gold holdings.

The CPI in August will affect the extent of interest rate cuts

In terms of geopolitics, Russian President Vladimir Putin ignored calls for a ceasefire against the attacks on Ukraine and instead warned that countries sending troops to Ukraine would become "legitimate targets" of Russia. At present, factors such as tight global trade, uncertain tariffs, geopolitical conflicts and inflation are all exerting pressure on the US dollar, thereby enhancing the demand for gold.

The US August CPI data will be released this Thursday and is an important inflation figure before the interest rate decision. Currently, the market expects the year-on-year increase in the CPI to expand from 2.7% to 2.9%. Under the condition of balancing employment and the inflation rate, it is more likely that the interest rate will be reduced by 25 basis points even if it is cut. Only when the CPI inflation rate drops sharply, for instance, below 2.4% or less, is it possible for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by half a percentage point.

3548 is an important support point for the day

Last Friday, it was pointed out that the gold price reaching a new high last Friday was regarded as a perfect short-term top. Therefore, this week, there is a tendency to repeatedly adjust and consolidate to make arrangements for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. Currently, on the weekly chart, measured by the TD line, the upward target is approximately $3,785. If calculated based on the Gann Square and a price gap of $50, the short-term resistance levels are $3,610 and $3,660, with the resistance at $3,660 being the greatest. If the resistance at $3,660 is broken through, the next resistance level will be $3,710. Since the resistance at $3,710 is relatively small, $3,660 will then become the target for both bulls and bears to compete for. And if it breaks through $3,710, The next resistance is $3,810.

In other words, if the gold price breaks through and stabilizes above $3,660, it will tend to fluctuate between $3,660 and $3,810 for a period of time. On the contrary, if $3,600 is confirmed as a medium and short-term resistance, then the important support levels for gold prices in the future will be $3,550, $3,450, $3,350, $3,250, $3,100 and $2,900 respectively. Gold prices opened slightly higher this morning and then moved sideways. They later broke through the intraday high to $3,597.3 and then dropped to $3,585, creating a pattern of a sharp decline on the hourly chart. The low before the upward break last Friday was $3,548. It is estimated that there will be a support at this level. The intraday range is expected to fluctuate between $3,548 and $3,600.

The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.

Zheng Guangfu, a special analyst of MTF