Gold market analysis

"Gold Price Expected to Range Sideways Intraday" 5/9/2025 9:41 Finalized 

Gold prices continued their decline from the New York session in the early Asian session yesterday. They bottomed out at $3,511 in the Tokyo midday session before rebounding and gradually recouping losses. In the early New York session, they rose to near $3,559 and then traded sideways between $3,540 and $3,555. Regarding data, the August ADP private sector employment report, which was closely watched by the market, showed that only 54,000 new jobs were added, falling short of the expected 73,000. Nela Richardson, chief economist at ADP, said that while job growth was strong at the beginning of the year, this momentum was disrupted by uncertainties, leading to a slowdown in hiring, including labor shortages, consumer concerns, and the impact of artificial intelligence. 

Speculators are focusing their efforts on the non-farm payroll. 

However, the gold price did not surge significantly despite the data being worse than expected and the previous value. Instead, it declined somewhat. Subsequently, the multiple economic data released by the United States were mixed. Although the gold price approached $3,359 at the beginning of the US stock market opening, it did not align with the release time of the US economic data, and this level was the highest trading price throughout the New York trading session. After that, the gold price fluctuated within approximately $15. The spot gold price eventually closed at around $3,552 with a long-tailed hammerhead rebound. 

Gold prices did not react much to the ADP employment data. It is estimated that market forces are focused on the August non-farm payroll data to be released tonight. In terms of other data, SPDR Gold ETF reduced its holdings by another 2.29 tons yesterday, bringing the total holdings down to 981.97 tons. In terms of investor sentiment, the long-short ratio remained at 42% and 58%. 

$3,556 is a short-term resistance level. 

Gold prices rebounded after hitting a low of $3,540 in the Asian session this morning, but failed to break through the $3,556 level several times and retreated. From the hourly chart, it is clear that the rebound has encountered resistance after recovering 61.8% of yesterday's biggest decline. The resistance at the high of the large bearish candle that broke through the horizontal range in the early Asian session yesterday at $3,563 is even stronger. It is estimated that before the release of the US August non-farm payroll data, gold prices will fluctuate within the range of $3,560 to $3,535 for most of the day. Judging from the short-term cyclical trend, if gold prices reach a new high today, it can be regarded as the perfect time for a peak. Otherwise, the peak will be confirmed on Wednesday. 

The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. 

MTF Special Analyst Zheng Guangfu