Gold market analysis

"Gold Price Awaits Powell's Speech for a Breakthrough" 22/8/2025 10:16 Completed 

Yesterday, the gold price plunged sharply to a low of $3,325 during the European midday session, but then rebounded continuously to a high of $3,348. The reason for this might be related to remarks made by Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov. Lavrov stated that Russia supports the security guarantee concept for Ukraine proposed at the 2022 Istanbul talks and said that Russia has always been ready for candid dialogue on Ukraine's security guarantee issue. He also pointed out that Putin has repeatedly expressed his readiness to meet with Zelensky. However, he emphasized that Russia will not accept foreign troops stationed in Ukraine. 

US August PMI beats expectations 

On the other hand, the latest preliminary S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for the US jumped sharply from 49.8 in July to 53.3, the highest since May 2022, and was better than the market expectation of further contraction. The Services PMI, however, edged down slightly from 55.7 to 55.4, remaining in expansion territory. These data deprived gold of an excuse to break through upward. However, gold remained in a narrow range around $3,340 in the New York afternoon session yesterday, and most of the hourly bars closed below $3,340. It seems that gold is waiting for Powell's speech tonight to make a breakthrough. 

The gold price is likely to fluctuate between $3,330 and $3,345. 

This morning, the gold price remained below $3,340, showing a slightly weak performance. From the hourly chart, the gold price is at the end of a narrowing triangle, with a breakout imminent. Currently, it is closer to the ascending trend line of the triangle. If it breaks down, the measured decline target is approximately $3,308. Conversely, if it breaks up the descending trend line, the upward target is $3,368. From the daily chart, the gold price is still fluctuating within the range of Wednesday's trading. Even if it drops to $3,308, it is only slightly lower than Wednesday's low by $3.6. On the contrary, if it breaks up, it will be nearly $17 higher than Wednesday's high. Therefore, an upward breakout of the gold price is more significant. For the time being, it is judged that the gold price is likely to fluctuate between $3,330 and $3,345 for most of the day, and it is unlikely to have a major breakthrough before Powell's speech. 

The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. 

MTF Special Analyst Zheng Guangfu