Gold market analysis

"Gold Price Short-Term Tendency: Narrow Range Fluctuation" 21/8/2025 10:13 Completed 

Gold prices continued to rebound after hitting a low of $3,311 in the early Asian session yesterday. From the hourly chart, it can be seen that the first target of $3,350 was reached in the early New York session, followed by a long negative candle. However, it climbed again and approached $3,352 in the early Asian session this morning before retreating. Currently, there is support at $3,340. 

Although the minutes of the Federal Reserve's July interest rate meeting released yesterday showed that only two committee members suggested a 25 basis point rate cut at that meeting, the majority supported keeping the rate unchanged. The minutes indicated that Fed committee members were divided on when to confirm that the increase in import costs would not trigger broader and sustained price increases. Some members said that a large amount of information would be available in the coming months, but some believed that it was not appropriate to adjust the monetary policy stance until the impact of tariffs on inflation was fully clear. Although some members were concerned that the job market might deteriorate, the majority believed that the rise in the inflation rate was the greater risk of the two. 

The US July interest rate meeting is delayed. 

However, as the July employment report was released after that meeting, the July interest rate meeting is somewhat out of step with the current situation. Moreover, the number of new non-farm jobs in July dropped sharply, and the number of new jobs in May and June was significantly revised down. The July CPI also did not reflect the significant increase in inflation due to tariffs, or it can be regarded as the transmission speed of tariffs to consumer prices being slower than expected, which helps ease market concerns about a new round of inflation driven by rising import costs. Recently, a few committee members have expressed support for Waller and Bowman's stance on interest rate cuts, suggesting that they may support a rate cut at the September meeting. 

The gold price is expected to fluctuate between 3,330 and 3,350. 

The annual global central bank symposium will be held from today until Saturday. Fed Chair Powell will speak on Friday. It is believed that he is well aware that the market is waiting for his views on the recent employment and inflation data, especially whether he is open to a rate cut in September. Gold prices pulled back to the $3,340 level this morning and found support. With the global central bank symposium approaching and the US set to release the August S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMI tonight, which is expected to slow down, if gold prices show strength, they are likely to fluctuate above $3,340 today, with a possibility of breaking above $3,350 again. If there are many short-term profit-taking orders, gold prices may fall back to the $3,335 level. Overall, it is expected that gold prices will fluctuate between $3,330 and $3,350 today. 

The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. 

MTF Special Analyst Zheng Guangfu