Gold market analysis

"Gold Price Short-Term Rebound Still Halted at 3400" 18/8/2025 10:01 Completed
Last Friday, the spot gold price slightly declined and closed at the level of $3335. August gold futures rose by $0.80 to $3336 per ounce, but still fell by $103.1 for the entire week. Both spot and futures silver prices dropped. Spot silver narrowly held above $38 per ounce at the close, while August silver futures fell by $0.08 to $37.89 per ounce, down $0.52 for the week. 

There is no hope for a short-term ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. 

Although Trump's invitation to Putin to meet in Alaska to discuss ending the Russia-Ukraine conflict was the market focus last weekend, it is believed that no one expected an immediate solution acceptable to all parties to be found. However, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has lasted for three years, and investors seeking to avoid risks have already taken action. According to people familiar with the negotiations, as an exchange for the Donbas region, Putin said he would freeze the front lines in southern regions such as Kherson and Zaporizhzhia and would not launch new attacks to seize more territory. In addition, the West must recognize Crimea as belonging to Russia. This is in conflict with Zelensky's refusal to give up territorial sovereignty. 

Gold prices are expected to remain supported in the short term as a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine conflict seems unlikely in the near future. This week's focus is likely to shift to the Jackson Hole symposium in Wyoming from Thursday to Saturday, where market participants hope to glean information on a potential rate cut in September from the speech of US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. After hitting a low of $3,323.6 in the Asian session this morning, spot gold has risen by more than $20. Even though a daily low has been formed, $3,375 is still expected to be a key resistance level in the short term. Moreover, on the daily chart, gold remains within a narrowing triangle and a broader sideways range. 

Gold price at 3,327 is expected to be a strong support within the day. 

Using the Fibonacci extension lines to measure the movement since July 30th, if gold prices rebound further intraday, the 38.2% increase level at $3,380.5 is seen as the first resistance, followed by the 50% increase level at $3,397. As gold prices fell sharply on August 11th, the high of that day at $3,405 is still a strong resistance and is difficult to break through for now. Gold prices are expected to fluctuate below $3,400 in the short term, with $3,327 serving as a strong intraday support. 

The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. 

MTF Special Analyst Zheng Guangfu