Gold market analysis

Silver Prices Reach New Highs and Remain in an Uptrend 12/9/2025 9:39 Completed 

Yesterday, the US released its August CPI. The overall year-on-year increase expanded from 2.7% to 2.9%, and the month-on-month increase also rose from 0.2% to 0.4%. Core CPI rose 3.1% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month, both in line with expectations and previous figures. However, the US dollar exchange rate fell across the board after the data release. The reason was not the CPI but the latest weekly initial jobless claims, which soared to 263,000, the highest level in four years. The market again bet that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates as soon as next week. This is exactly what I mentioned yesterday: do not judge the rise and fall of gold prices solely based on inflation data. 

The gold-silver ratio is expected to continue to decline. 

Gold prices rose on the momentum, reaching a high of nearly $3,644, but still fell short of yesterday's Asian morning session high of $3,649.2 by $5. It then moved sideways. This morning in the early Asian session, it rose sharply to nearly $3,646, but overall it showed a slightly downward channel pattern. In contrast, silver hit a new high in the mid-New York session yesterday, with spot silver reaching $41.76, but then dropped sharply to a low of $41.46. This morning in the early Asian session, silver prices continued to decline to around $41.4, but then rose sharply again to $41.82, setting a new high. As gold prices fell, silver prices instead hit a new high, indicating that silver is catching up. At the same time, it also reflects that the current gold-silver ratio, which is still as high as 87.5 times, is being corrected. Assuming a 50% adjustment of the maximum increase from 2011 to 2020, the ratio will drop to 79.86 times. 

Support is available only when it returns to $40.9. 

The gold-silver ratio is expected to decline. The fastest way for this to happen is for the gold price to fall and the silver price to rise, but the positive correlation between gold and silver makes such an opportunity rare. The second scenario is that both gold and silver prices rise, but the silver price increases more than the gold price. The third scenario is that both gold and silver prices fall, but the silver price drops less than the gold price. Observing the hourly chart, the silver price has been in an upward channel since it broke through $40 on September 1st. It is also in perfect harmony with the overbought and oversold signals of the 9RSI indicator. That is, when it reaches above 80, it starts to correct, and when it falls below 20, it rebounds. According to this rhythm, the silver price is expected to rise again after falling to around $40.9. Currently, the resistance level is approximately $42.15. 

Gold prices failed to reach new highs for two consecutive days, but still closed above $3,600. The lowest point yesterday was only $3,614. I still believe that gold prices will continue to fluctuate between $3,610 and $3,660 in the short term. The Federal Reserve's FOMC will hold its interest rate meeting next Wednesday and Thursday. There are not many important data releases in the US next week. Only the retail sales data for August, which will be released on Wednesday, may cause a brief market disturbance. I believe that the market will not show a new trend until the Fed announces its interest rate decision. However, as we are approaching the fourth quarter of this year, the current trend may reverse before the end of the year. 

The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. 

MTF Special Analyst Zheng Guangfu