Gold market analysis

"Gold Prices Expected to Remain Range-bound" 15/9/2025 10:00 Completed 

This week is a super interest rate decision week as the Bank of Canada, the US Federal Reserve, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan will successively announce their interest rate decisions. The market expects that the Bank of Canada and the Federal Reserve will both cut interest rates by 25 basis points, while the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan will keep their interest rates unchanged. The market's focus is naturally on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. However, a 25 basis point cut has already been reflected in the financial market, so this reduction should not cause significant fluctuations in the financial market. What is more influential should be how the Federal Reserve's decision-makers assess the economic performance, employment and inflation outlook of the United States in the next two years. Of course, if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 50 basis points, that would be a completely different story! 

The sharp drop in gold prices has created profit opportunities. 

Gold prices continued to fall in the early Asian market today, hitting a low of $3,626.65, a drop of nearly $20 from the high. This is the sharpest and deepest decline in the early Asian market since the historical high of $2,647 on September 9. However, there was news this morning that Trump claimed he expected the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates significantly at this meeting. I believe he is putting pressure on the Federal Reserve and expressing the demands of a "boss". If so, why did the gold price fall sharply? 

I think it's the good friends of gold who closed their positions for profits before the Fed's interest rate decision, creating a larger fluctuation space for the gold price. On the other hand, as the saying goes, "while the mantis is in front, the yellow bird is behind." If you hold your position at a high level without closing it, there will be other speculators closing their positions. Unless all the gold enthusiasts are determined to push the gold price to a new historical high, otherwise, if $3,647 has become the ceiling, that is, the upward space of the gold price is limited, after a deeper correction, there will be a greater operating space. In this way, even if the Fed only cuts interest rates by 25 basis points, the gold price will still have a larger upward and profit space. 

The intraday rebound resistance is at $3,640. 

From the hourly chart, a sideways pattern is gradually taking shape. The gold price is trading between $3,614.3 and $3,657.5, which precisely falls within the Gann square support and resistance levels I pointed out, namely between $3,610 and $3,660. In other words, the gold price must break through these levels to have a chance to enter a new range. If it breaks upwards, the new range will be between $3,660 and $3,710; if it breaks downwards, the range will become between $3,610 and $3,560. I believe that before the Fed announces its interest rate decision, the gold price will remain within the range of $3,610 to $3,660. However, the possibility of a downward break is still greater, and any intraday rebound is likely to be capped at $3,640. 

The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. 

MTF Special Analyst Zheng Guangfu