Gold market analysis

"Gold Prices Rekindle Momentum for New Highs" 22/9/2025 9:25 Completed 

Gold prices rose again last Friday. Even though the Federal Reserve's FOMC announced a 25 basis point rate cut on Thursday morning, lowering the target range for the federal funds rate to 4% to 4.25%, in line with market expectations, the latest economic forecast suggested that there was still room for two more rate cuts totaling 50 basis points in the fourth quarter. However, profit-taking selling caused gold prices to fall sharply, but they gradually recovered after hitting a low of $3,628 on Thursday. As I pointed out, after re-establishing a foothold at $3,646, gold prices once again challenged the previous high and closed at the day's high of $3,685.59. 

Gold prices strengthened further in the early Asian session today, reaching a high of $3,692 before pulling back. However, it found support at $3,686 on multiple attempts to break through. After stabilizing, it climbed again and approached $3,697. The 5-minute chart shows a consolidation pattern at the high level. As gold prices have returned to the other Gann square price zone of $3,660 to $3,710, it is expected to remain within this range in the short term. However, with the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by another 50 basis points this year, gold prices have a reason to reach new highs. 

3710 is a short-term resistance level. 

In addition, the US will release the final reading of its third-quarter GDP on Thursday this week. The expected annualized growth rate is 3.3% quarter-on-quarter. On Friday, the latest PCE data, which is closely watched by the Federal Reserve, will also be released. It is estimated that the core PCE in August rose by 2.9% or more year-on-year, indicating that inflationary pressure in the US remains high. Therefore, it is necessary to be cautious of a major reversal in the gold price trend on Friday. 

From the hourly chart, it can be seen that the gold price rebounded after hitting a low of $3,626 on September 15th and also rose significantly after reaching a low of $3,628 on September 18th. Measured by the Fibonacci extension line, if the amplitude reaches 100%, the gold price will rise to $3,708.93, which is extremely close to the Gann 315-degree angle at $3,710. Therefore, $3,710 can be regarded as a significant short-term resistance level for the gold price, while the short-term adjustment will have the $3,678 and the 20-hour SMA (currently around $3,668.5) as the main support levels. 

The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. 

MTF Special Analyst Zheng Guangfu