Gold market analysis

"Gold Prices Have a Greater Chance of Breaking Downward" Completed on 26/9/2025 at 10:01 

Gold prices yesterday mainly showed a pattern of rising first and then falling. After reaching a high of $3,761.65 in the early European session, they dropped again. The final reading of the US second-quarter GDP was revised significantly downward, growing at an annualized rate of 3.8% quarter-on-quarter. Affected by this data, gold prices plunged sharply from the $3,750 level, hitting a low of $3,722.25 before gradually recovering. In the late New York session, they rose sharply to $3,758.36 before falling back. Despite the strong growth of the US second-quarter GDP, it did not change the market's expectation that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October. CME's interest rate futures indicated that the probability of a 25 basis point cut in October was over 85% as expected by investors. 

US PCE data may be the breakthrough point. 

This morning, Japan released its September CPI figures. The overall year-on-year increase remained at 2.5%, and the increase after excluding fresh food also stayed at 2.5%, lower than the expected 2.8%. After the data release, the gold price fluctuated upward, reaching a high of $3,753.4, but then dropped sharply by more than $10 to a low of $3,738.88. The gold price has failed to reach a new high for two consecutive trading days. From the hourly chart, it is clearly visible that the gold price has recently shown a pattern of falling first and then consolidating, with the range of fluctuation between $3,717 and $3,762, roughly within the Gann angle levels of $3,710 to $3,760. 

Today, it is necessary to pay attention to the release of the US August PCE. It is expected that the overall year-on-year increase will be 2.7%, higher than 2.6% in July. The core PCE is expected to maintain a year-on-year increase of 2.9%. It is believed that the gold price will break through the above sideways range with the data. Currently, the gold price is more sensitive to unfavorable data or news. If the PCE data reflects an increase in inflationary pressure in the US, the gold price is likely to fall below $3,710 and return to the range of $3,660 to $3,710. 

The short-term downside target is $3,685. 

In the short term, looking at the hourly chart, gold prices have repeatedly challenged the 50SMA (3750.18) yesterday and this morning but have been clearly blocked. The 20SMA (3745.3) also fell below the 50SMA on Wednesday night. Therefore, it is expected that the probability of a downward breakthrough is relatively high. Measured by the TD line, if it breaks through the ascending track of about 3725 US dollars, the measured decline target is 3685 US dollars, which is slightly lower than the 61.8% adjustment level of the maximum increase from September 18th to 23rd. At that time, it is very likely that the gold price will return to fluctuate within the range of 3660 to 3710 US dollars. 

The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. 

MTF Special Analyst Zheng Guangfu