"High Probability of Gold Price Peaking in the Short Term" 7/1/2026 10:41 Completed 

Spot gold prices reached a high of $4,500.5 in the early Asian session today and have continued to decline. From the hourly chart, it can be seen that the gold price has broken through the 20SMA ($4,475.6). Does this indicate the end of the upward trend that began after the gap-up on Monday this week? Yesterday, it was pointed out that the short-term cycle top of the gold price would appear today. Currently, a downward signal has emerged on the hourly chart. Secondly, from the perspective of wave theory, the starting point of wave 1 was formed at the low of $3,886.66 on October 28 last year. Wave 2 adjustment began at $4,245.15 on November 13, and then entered wave 3 at $3,998.13 on the 18th, ending at the historical high of $4,550.12. The low of wave 4 was on December 13 at $4,274.83 (close to the top of wave 1 at $4,245.15), and then came wave 5, which ended at $4,500.5. 

The wave theory is closely related to technical patterns. The relationship between the aforementioned 3-wave and 5-wave can also be described as a double top (referred to as a failed 5-wave in wave theory). Otherwise, the 3-wave might actually be a 5-wave. In that case, the recent rebound would be wave a, and the subsequent waves b and c could form a triangle or a pattern where each wave is lower than the previous one. If so, the rebound since the beginning of this year would be an escape opportunity, as wave c would fall below the bottom of wave 4. If measured simply by the double top, the target for the decline would be $3,999.54. 

Even if the gold price hits a new intraday high today, the probability of it falling back in a double top formation remains very high regardless of whether it can break through the top of the previous 3rd wave and set a new all-time high. The only thing I need to consider is that the normal 5th wave of the gold price (or other financial asset prices) is higher than the top of the 3rd wave, so it cannot be ruled out that the gold price will rise again. This morning's adjustment may be due to investors closing their positions in advance before the release of two important employment data in the US. However, it can also be inferred that the gold price will be weak before the release of the US ADP's December employment data tonight. The strong resistance will be at $4,500 to $4,510, the first support will be at $4,460, and the strong support will be at $4,410. 

The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.