Gold Market Analysis: "High Probability of Gold Breaking Above 20-Day Moving Average" – October 16, 2026, 10:54 AM (Completed)

Yesterday, the U.S. released its September PPI data, which rose by 1.3% month-on-month—the largest increase since March 2022—and climbed 6.3% year-on-year—the highest gain since December 2022. The surge was primarily driven by a 10.2% monthly rise in energy product prices. However, similar to the CPI release, the impact on gold prices was brief. After briefly dipping to $4,131.33, gold quickly rebounded and continued to push higher throughout the day, reaching a high of $4,177.60 toward the end of New York trading before showing a noticeable pullback.

Following the release of inflation data exceeding expectations, gold initially faced short-term selling pressure but subsequently resumed an upward trend. I believe this shift is influenced by differing views among Federal Reserve officials regarding inflation. For instance, San Francisco Fed President Daly stated that policymakers still have time to assess economic developments and do not need to act hastily at the October meeting. While she acknowledged that further rate adjustments may be necessary in the future, she emphasized that labor market stability must be maintained, and thus there should be no artificial pressure to raise rates without clear urgency. Meanwhile, New York Fed President Williams suggested that another rate hike might be needed this year, but he does not anticipate further increases in 2027.

Of course, some officials remain supportive of tightening. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee expressed disappointment with the September inflation figures, noting persistent strength in service-sector inflation, which may indicate overheated demand. Nevertheless, he prefers to wait for more data before deciding whether to support additional hikes, stressing that if inflation remains above target, authorities cannot afford to ignore it. Fed Vice Chair for Supervisory Affairs Bowman pointed out that while inflation remains above target, after the September rate hike, there is sufficient time to monitor how financial conditions evolve. Clearly, his stance suggests no immediate need for further action.

Currently, gold remains within a range of approximately $4,066 to $4,227 on the hourly chart. Although yesterday’s rebound did not fully recover Wednesday’s losses, it can still be interpreted as a two-day reversal pattern—a relatively strong signal of a potential trend change. Given that recent price movements have closely followed the daily 20-period SMA at $4,191, the likelihood of gold breaking above this level and testing $4,210 remains high. A rally equivalent to 38.2% of the drop since August 25 could lift prices to $4,307.33—very close to the Gann 225-degree angle level at $4,310.

The above information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.