Gold Market Analysis: “Gold Prices: Short-Term Rebound, Downward Trend Unabated” Completed at 11:00 on 11/11/2026
Yesterday, the U.S. Department of Labor released the October CPI, which rose 0.4% month-on-month, above expectations but below the previous reading. Core CPI held steady at a 0.3% monthly increase. However, because the federal government was shut down for several weeks in October 2025, forcing the Bureau of Labor Statistics to suspend operations, no data were collected and no annual change could be provided. Even so, there are still ways to make an estimate.
The CPI was 324.8 in September 2025 and 324.22 in November 2025, while this year’s October reading was 337.51. Therefore, the October CPI annual rate should be between 3.9% and 4.1%. Even if the midpoint of last year’s September and November figures is used, last month’s CPI annual rate would still reach 4%. In addition, assuming this year’s November CPI is the same as October’s, the year-on-year increase would reach 4.1%, still reflecting rising inflation. The November CPI will be released on December 10, but the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision on December 9, so there is reason to believe that the chance of a December rate hike is very high. As for next year’s interest rate path, it will depend on the latest economic projections released after the next meeting.
After the inflation data were released, the U.S. dollar reversed its recent weakness, and the U.S. Dollar Index climbed back to the 102 level. From the high of 110.18 on January 13 last year to the low of 95.55 on January 27 this year, a 50% retracement of the decline would reach 102.86, so 103 remains strong resistance in the short term. Since a December rate hike had already been priced in, for the U.S. Dollar Index to challenge 103, it would most likely be because the Fed hints in its next economic projections that another rate hike of 50 basis points or more is still possible next year.
In the short term, spot gold prices appear to have completed the a-wave correction. Judging from the 15-minute chart, the market is currently in a b-wave rebound, with the wave top tentatively set at USD 4,081.46 or USD 4,097.45. Once the rebound is complete and the c-wave begins, the bottom of the c-wave would be USD 3,945.97, assuming it equals the decline of the a-wave. However, that would signal the start of a higher-degree wave 3 in gold prices! Therefore, for short-term rebound trades, the targets are USD 4,081.46 or USD 4,097.45; sell short when the price reaches the target, or avoid short-term buying and wait to sell short when the price reaches the target, capturing the c-wave decline!
The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.