Gold market analysis

2026-09-28

Gold Market Analysis: "Gold Price Expected to Launch Strong Rebound Wave" – September 28, 2026, 10:12 AM (Completed) The gold price has not developed as expected. After reaching a high of $4,315.73 during Friday's European midday session, the spot gold price quickly declined. Although it briefly rebounded to $4,300.22 after touching a low of $4,255, it failed to make further gains and formed a descending flag pattern on the hourly chart. In today’s Asian trading session, gold opened lower with a gap down, followed by a sharp decline, continuing to hit intraday lows at $4,213.46. The reason behind this move appears to be the eight agreements reached between U.S. and Chinese leaders following their summit. These include mutual reductions in tariffs amounting to $30 billion, as well as an agreement that Iran should fulfill its commitment not to develop nuclear weapons, and both sides opposing any country or organization from imposing tolls on international waters. The tariff cuts will help reduce import inflation, while China’s stance against Iranian nuclear ambitions and opposition to tolls on international waterways could help reopen the Strait of Hormuz, restoring normal international oil supply and thereby helping to ease inflation driven by rising oil prices. Overall, the market’s risk appetite has improved due to the U.S.-China agreement, making the fall in gold prices a natural response. Investors should note, however, that Trump has threatened to launch stronger military strikes against Iran after the midterm elections. Nevertheless, given the alignment of U.S. and Chinese positions on Iran’s nuclear program and their shared opposition to tolls on international waters, any future U.S. military action against Iran is unlikely to cause a significant surge in oil prices. Instead, such developments may strengthen gold’s role as a safe-haven asset. Technically, gold touched a low of $4,206 this morning, slightly testing the strong support level at the Gann 180-degree angle of $4,210 before recovering and holding above it. With volatility already exceeding $80 in the early part of today’s Asian session, there is a higher likelihood of a strong rebound. The first key resistance level for the day is expected around $4,260, with $4,310 serving as the main short-term resistance. The above information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.

2026-09-25

Gold Market Analysis: Short-Term Price Trend May Turn Stronger   September 25, 2026, 11:10 AM (Completed) First of all, I wish everyone a joyful Mid-Autumn Festival! The gold price movement has largely met expectations. On the daily chart, it has closed below the 50 SMA (4317) for two consecutive days, clearly signaling a downward breakout. On the hourly chart, after touching support twice at the $4,244 level yesterday, the price formed a double-bottom rebound pattern. This morning, although it briefly broke above the hourly 50 SMA (4292) twice, it failed to close above that line on both occasions. Overall, the rebound on the hourly chart slightly exceeded the 38.2% retracement level of the maximum decline since September 23 (4293.04), and also marginally surpassed the low of September 22 at $4,291.58. However, further gains were not achieved. The limited rebound—less than 50%—and the inability to overcome the two key resistance levels indicate that the overall trend remains weak, with bears still in control. Nevertheless, it's worth noting that short-term cyclical patterns suggest a bottom was reached yesterday, implying a likely continuation of the rebound into next week. If today’s pullback finds support around the hourly 20 SMA (4270), or even if prices retest the $4,244 level but do not fall below $4,244.79, followed by strong bullish signals such as a piercing pattern, this would confirm a short-term strengthening trend. From a wave theory perspective, this formation could be identified as waves 1 and 2, paving the way for a powerful third wave. Next week, gold is likely to break above $4,310 and challenge the $4,360 level. The above information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.

2026-09-24

"Gold Price Needs to Break Above 4,310 to Reverse Weakness" – Completed on September 24, 2026, 10:35 AM U.S. and Chinese leaders met in Washington, where the U.S. Treasury announced an extension of the temporary trade truce by two months, originally set to expire on November 10, giving both sides more time to advance toward a potential trade agreement. Clearly, Trump aims to foster a harmonious atmosphere ahead of the midterm elections through this meeting, suggesting that some form of trade deal is likely to be reached. Meanwhile, regarding the Middle East, the U.S. is expected to avoid escalating military actions against Iran. Currently, markets anticipate that the leaders' meeting could improve bilateral relations. Resolving trade tensions would help ease import-driven inflation in the U.S., reducing the urgency for Federal Reserve rate hikes and cooling market risk sentiment. This would encourage capital inflows into equities, dampening demand for gold and making significant price gains difficult. Moreover, the Fed has already raised interest rates by 25 basis points in September, officially entering a tightening cycle. Even if further consecutive hikes are unlikely in the near term, with core CPI inflation still above 3%, a rate cut remains out of the question—making the outlook unfavorable for gold prices. Yesterday, gold prices declined throughout the day. In early Asian trading, it peaked at $4,369.37, then as expected formed a double top on the hourly chart before continuing lower. It hit a low of $4,275.53 during New York midday trading before slowly recovering. This morning, it rose briefly to $4,303.30 but quickly reversed, falling to $4,282.67 before rebounding again. On the five-minute chart, gold is consolidating at lower levels. However, on the hourly chart, it briefly broke above the 20-period SMA (currently around $4,298) this morning, only to reverse sharply with a "head-and-shoulders" breakdown pattern, indicating that $4,310 may have become a key short-term resistance level. Additionally, yesterday’s close saw gold fall below the 50-period SMA (currently around $4,312) on the daily chart. If it breaks below the TD ascending trendline, the projected downside target would be approximately $3,692. To reverse its weak momentum, gold must break above and hold steady above $4,310. Therefore, this level remains the critical resistance for today’s trading. The above information is for reference purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

2026-09-23

"Gold Price Forms Double Top on Hourly Chart—Sell on Strength"   Completed: 23/9/2026 11:13   Yesterday, as expected, gold prices tested the 4,310 level, with spot gold briefly dipping to 4,291.58 USD. On the hourly chart, gold subsequently rebounded sharply, forming a strong bullish "head and shoulders" breakout pattern. Following this, prices continued rising, peaking at 4,371.11 USD toward the end of New York trading session before consolidating at higher levels. This morning, after reaching a high of 4,369.37 USD, prices reversed sharply, forming another head-and-shoulders bearish pattern, temporarily falling to 4,333.95 USD. On the daily chart, gold tested below the 50SMA (currently around 4,307) but closed strongly higher yesterday, suggesting that the market may have completed its bottom test and is now likely to challenge the resistance at the 20SMA (currently around 4,378). However, the hourly chart clearly shows a double top forming near 4,370 USD, and the price has since broken below 4,360 USD—consistent with expectations of a peak today. Therefore, selling on strength remains the primary strategy. Moreover, the gap between the 20SMA and 50SMA continues to narrow, signaling an imminent breakout. Given the prevailing expectation of rising U.S. interest rates, the risk of a gold rebound is relatively high (though not entirely ruled out), meaning short positions can be held, while long positions are more vulnerable. Looking at the broader weekly chart, investors will notice that gold has now fallen below the 50SMA (around 4,466) for the second time since early June this year. The duration spent below this moving average is currently the longest since June 2022, when gold last broke below it. That decline began in March 2022 at 2,070.29 USD and didn't reverse until late September 2022, when it reached 1,614.35 USD before launching a recovery. In terms of price, the maximum drop was nearly 413 USD, or about 22%. Applying this historical pattern to the current trend, starting from the August peak of 4,697.66 USD, gold could fall to 4,285 USD—already meeting the threshold. A further 22% decline would bring prices down to 3,664 USD, which coincides precisely with the 270-degree vertical angle of Gann's square, indicating substantial room for further downside movement. The above information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.

2026-09-22

"High Probability of Downward Breakout" – Completed on 22/9/2026 at 11:06 On the daily chart, the distance between the 20SMA (4391) and 50SMA (4301) for spot gold prices is gradually narrowing, with the price fluctuating narrowly between these two moving averages. Observing the basic daily chart, gold reached a historical high of $5,595.46 on January 29 this year, followed by a continuous decline to a low of $3,944.23 on June 30. It then initiated a rebound wave, peaking at $4,697.66 on August 25. The total rebound exceeded 38.2% of the prior maximum drop, yet still remained over $70 below the 50% retracement level at $4,769.84, indicating that gold remains in a downtrend on the daily chart. Since the peak on August 25, gold has declined again, hitting a low of $4,235.08 on September 16 before recovering. The cumulative maximum loss approached 61.8% of the previous rebound (reaching $4,232.04). Subsequently, another rally occurred, but so far the rebound has not even reached 38.2% of the prior move (up to $4,409.85), further confirming the prevailing bearish trend. On the hourly chart, gold has formed double tops at $4,399/$4,396 and $4,374/$4,375, suggesting resistance levels are progressively declining. With gold currently consolidating within the narrowing range between the 20-day and 50-day SMAs, a breakout is inevitable. In my view, the likelihood of a downward breakout is very high, as momentum is building up, awaiting a trigger for a sharp move. From a Gann Square perspective, the current major trading range for gold lies between strong resistance at $4,410 and strong support at $4,210. Currently, $4,360 appears to have been breached, and short-term price action may test $4,310. If this level is broken, any subsequent rebound will likely face clear resistance, leading to renewed selling pressure. This would suggest that the near-term volatility could shift further down to the $4,310–$4,210 range. With $4,210 considered a key support zone, a break below it would target the $4,000 psychological level. The above information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.

2026-09-21

Gold Prices Expected to Remain in Narrow Range in the Short Term   September 21, 2026, 11:15 AM   Regarding the Middle East situation, the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, keeping New York crude oil prices elevated, though they dipped slightly below $100 this morning. Iran continues to use maritime transit rights as its most potent bargaining tool, while countries such as Qatar and Oman are playing a mediating role by conveying dialogue terms and establishing indirect communication channels between the U.S. and Iran. Although Iran is willing to resume negotiations, it maintains a firm stance with seven core demands: the United States must completely cease all military strikes and hostile actions against Iran; unfreeze Iranian overseas assets seized or frozen by the U.S. and lift economic sanctions; end the maritime blockade in the region; require future talks to be based on the earlier memorandum of understanding, rejecting starting anew from scratch. From the U.S. perspective, ongoing conflict exerts significant political pressure on global energy markets and domestic stability. However, fully accepting Iran’s conditions would likely be seen by domestic public opinion and political opponents as a strategic defeat. Therefore, the U.S. is maintaining military deterrence, attempting to force Iran into more concrete concessions regarding its nuclear program, ballistic missile technology, and regional proxy policies. With less than two months remaining before the U.S. midterm elections, Iran is unlikely to make any concessions, and the U.S., constrained by political considerations, will not accept Iran’s demands either. Nevertheless, large-scale attacks against Iran are expected to be avoided prior to the election. Regarding gold prices, after the Federal Reserve announced a 25-basis-point rate hike last week, gold initially dropped sharply but then recovered steadily. On Friday, it twice approached the psychological level of $4,400 without breaking through. The hourly chart has now formed a double-top pattern, making it highly likely that prices will fall below the neckline at approximately $4,343, targeting a potential decline to around $4,286. On the daily chart, gold is currently approaching the 20-day SMA (currently around $4,407), but resistance at $4,400 is clearly evident. Thus, prices are expected to gradually test lower levels in the short term, temporarily consolidating between the 20-day and 50-day SMAs (currently around $4,296). The recommended strategy is primarily selling on strength. The above information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.

2026-09-18

"Strong Gold Prices Signal an Upcoming Sharp Drop" – Completed on 18/09/2026 at 10:07 Following the Federal Reserve's unanimous decision to raise interest rates by 0.25%, gold prices initially plunged sharply but then rebounded steadily, gaining over $100 yesterday—significantly outperforming other major non-U.S. currencies. While higher U.S. interest rates are theoretically extremely negative for gold, why has this time been so unusual? Why hasn't gold fallen with the rate hike, instead recovering strongly after a sharp drop? I believe this is a precursor to a significant decline in gold prices. First, the Fed’s announcement of a rate hike—and its indication that another 0.25% increase may occur later this year—likely attracted increased selling pressure on gold. However, gold had already broken below the 50-period simple moving average (SMA) on the daily chart (currently around $4,288). Moreover, since the expected next hike is scheduled for December, this timing actually creates a potential catalyst for a rebound. Therefore, I have long anticipated that gold would remain volatile around the 50-SMA and 20-SMA levels in the short term. On the other hand, the Fed’s shift toward tightening has led to rising real interest rates. Statistics show that when the 10-year real interest rate exceeds 1.5%, or even remains above 2%, gold prices tend to face clear downward pressure. Currently, the U.S. 10-year TIPS yield has surpassed 2.6%, suggesting that a new wave of decline in gold prices is likely imminent. Investors should watch closely: if gold forms a consolidation zone between the 50-SMA and 20-SMA on the daily chart during the fourth quarter, there will be a high probability of a breakdown into 2027—or even after the U.S. midterm elections. A fall below $4,210 would not only breach the neckline of a head-and-shoulders pattern on the hourly chart but also signal a test of the $3,900 level. In the short term, gold is expected to remain above $4,310, but the resistance zone between $4,360 and $4,380 is critical. Even if this range is breached, further upside will likely be capped at $4,410. Overall, I anticipate greater volatility and sideways movement in the near term. The above information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.

2026-09-17

Gold Price Tests 4210 Again, Risks Rising   Completed on 17/09/2026 at 10:59   As expected, the U.S. Federal Reserve announced a 0.25% rate hike following its policy meeting, raising the target range for the federal funds rate to 3.75–4%. All 12 voting members supported the decision. In its statement, the Fed noted that economic activity continued to expand steadily, domestic spending remained resilient, productivity and capital investment were strong, employment and labor market conditions advanced in tandem, and the unemployment rate showed little change—though inflation remained elevated. The current tightening is expected to help bring inflation back to the 2% target more quickly. The committee remains committed to price stability and will continue maintaining ample reserves in the banking system. In its latest economic projections, the Fed raised the median estimate for the key interest rate this year from 3.8% in June to 4.1%, indicating another potential rate increase within the year. Additionally, the median forecast for PCE inflation was revised upward from 3.6% in June to 3.7%, while core PCE inflation rose from 3.3% to 3.4%. The central bank now expects inflation to return to the 2% target only by 2029. Although the outcome aligned with market expectations, the unanimous approval of the rate hike and the hawkish forward guidance led to a sharp drop in gold prices immediately after the Fed announcement. Spot gold briefly dipped to $4,235.4 before recovering. This morning, it peaked at $4,318 but faced resistance at the 20-period SMA (currently around $4,316) on the hourly chart, followed by another decline. While Fed officials still see room for one more rate hike this year, the mid-term elections in early November may limit the likelihood of a move by late October. If a hike occurs in December, markets will have sufficient time to adjust. Until then, gold prices are likely to fluctuate based on data releases. A break above $4,410 seems unlikely at present; instead, the market appears more inclined to test the $4,210 support level. Meanwhile, $4,310 is likely to act as a pivot point and major resistance for medium- to short-term trends. Today’s trading is expected to range between $4,260 and $4,310. Should prices retest $4,235, a double-bottom rebound would be highly probable. In the near term, technical factors suggest that gold will likely trade in a volatile, sideways pattern. The above information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.

2026-09-16

Gold price expected to fluctuate above $4,310 intraday   September 16, 2026, 10:47 AM   The market expects a 25-basis-point rate hike tonight with over 90% probability. If implemented, this would mark the first increase since 2023, continuing pressure on gold prices. From the hourly chart, gold remains within a downward trend initiated on September 3 from the $4,510 level. After breaking below the 50-period SMA (currently around $4,298.29) last Friday, gold has shown clear weakness in challenging that moving average, while resistance is gradually forming near $4,310. Currently, the market has largely priced in a 25-basis-point Fed tightening. Future movements will depend on the Fed’s outlook for the economy, inflation, and employment, as well as Chair Waller’s comments. However, if he continues to avoid expressing a clear stance, traders will likely focus on interpreting limited signals to position themselves accordingly. This morning, spot gold briefly dipped to $4,275 before recovering steadily and re-crossing above $4,310. Should gold clearly break above the horizontal resistance at $4,318 on the hourly chart, there is a high likelihood of testing the Gann 270-degree vertical angle at $4,410. The key factor will be whether the Fed adopts an aggressive hiking path following any rate increase. Otherwise, $4,210 could serve as strong support, while $4,410 may act as short-term resistance—potentially paving the way for another test of $4,510. For most of the day, gold is expected to trade above $4,310. The above information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.

2026-09-15

"Gold Price Expected to Fluctuate Above 50-Day Moving Average in the Short Term" – Completed on 15/9/2026 at 9:53 Ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, gold prices continued to face pressure. Although spot gold rebounded early in Asian trading to around $4,355, it quickly encountered strong selling pressure and resumed its downward trend into the early New York session. The price sequentially lost key levels at $4,310 and $4,300, falling as low as $4,253.82 before launching a recovery wave. After London market close, gold briefly rose to $4,317.88 but then declined again, ultimately breaking below $4,300 by the end of the New York session. However, after today’s Asian open, gold regained above $4,300. Although it later dipped again, the lows did not fall below yesterday’s closing level in New York. On the 5-minute chart, gold formed a double bottom at $4,282 and $4,283. Although gold did not reach the Gann 180-degree angle at $4,210 yesterday, the daily decline was nearly $100, suggesting that the impact of this week’s Fed rate hike has already been fully priced in. If the Fed raises rates by 25 basis points at this meeting but signals caution in its post-meeting statement—such as indicating further hikes depend on ongoing developments, particularly the Middle East situation’s impact on oil prices—the likelihood of another rate increase in October remains low. Especially since the meeting occurs just one week ahead of the U.S. midterm elections, it is even less likely that the Fed would adjust rates during such a sensitive period. For the Fed to monitor the Middle East situation, key considerations include the outcome of the mid-term elections and Trump’s subsequent policy toward the region. $4,210 remains a strong support level for gold. Even if the Fed does raise rates, provided it maintains a cautious stance as expected, the chances of gold breaking below this level are slim, as investors always look forward. On the daily chart, gold briefly fell below the head-and-shoulders neckline at $4,282.71 and the 50-day SMA (currently around $4,275), but eventually closed back above the neckline. On an optimistic note, following the Fed’s rate decision, gold could trade within a range between the 50-day and 20-day SMAs (currently around $4,454). A more pessimistic view suggests that if the Fed announces a rate hike and gold breaks below the 50-day SMA, there is a high probability of forming a major double bottom near $4,000 or testing that level with a divergence against the RSI, followed by a strong rebound. However, it is unlikely that gold will break above the August 25 high of $4,697.66 in the fourth quarter. The above information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.

2026-09-14

Gold Prices Expected to Remain Under Pressure This Week   September 14, 2026, 11:11 AM   The U.S. August CPI data indicated persistently high inflation, increasing pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. According to CME's FedWatch tool, interest rate futures suggest an 86.7% probability that the Fed will hike rates by 25 basis points at this week’s policy meeting. Last week, apart from the Japanese yen, all major non-U.S. currencies weakened against the dollar. The New Zealand dollar fell 1.47% against the dollar—the worst performer—followed by the Swiss franc, with the dollar rising 1% against the CHF. The Australian dollar, the highest-yielding among major currencies, also declined 0.89% against the dollar. Following the release of the U.S. August CPI data last Friday, gold prices initially plunged to $4,292.35 but quickly rebounded on the hourly chart to $4,388.76, reaching a high of $4,402.56. However, prices subsequently retreated and closed in New York below $4,350. This morning, Asian markets opened lower with a gap down, testing levels around $4,325 before recovering slightly. Nevertheless, resistance remains near the 20-period SMA on the hourly chart (currently around $4,350), and a double-hourly reversal suggests a high likelihood of another short-term drop below $4,300. From a technical perspective, the hourly chart of spot gold has clearly formed a head-and-shoulders top pattern. Measured from its lowest point since August 7 at $4,282.67, a breakdown below this level would target approximately $3,868. In the short term, the key support is the Gann 225-degree angle at $4,310, which acts as the neckline. A break below this level would signal further downside toward the 180-degree angle at $4,210. If gold fails to launch a strong recovery and retest the 270-degree angle above $4,410, two scenarios are likely: first, gold will remain weak ahead of the Fed’s rate decision; second, if a rate hike occurs, the downward trend may extend into early next week. The current strategy remains focused on selling on strength, with the first major resistance at $4,360. The above information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.

2026-09-11

"Gold Price Struggles to Hold Above $4,310" – Completed on 11/9/2026 at 11:07   The U.S. August PPI indicates worsening inflation, and with crude oil rising above $100 per barrel, the overall CPI inflation rate in September is expected to climb further. However, as the Federal Reserve meets next week to decide on interest rates, we are currently in a blackout period during which Fed officials cannot publicly express their views. Given that leading indicators suggest deteriorating inflation, market focus has shifted beyond today’s release of the September CPI data. For gold prices, unless the CPI inflation rate shows a significant slowdown, the Gann 225-degree angle at $4,310 will face downward pressure. It's important to note that the relatively stronger support level lies at $4,210. Even if gold briefly tests above $4,310 today, it would be difficult to trigger a strong rebound. Personally, I expect gold to remain anchored around the $4,310 level before the U.S. releases its August CPI data, making a move above $4,360 unlikely. Taking the midpoint between these two levels as resistance, $4,335 represents a key resistance zone. A potential rebound may not occur until next Tuesday, but only if the Fed maintains current interest rates. Should the Fed announce an interest rate hike, gold could drop toward $4,210 before stabilizing temporarily. On the hourly chart, gold has approached the neckline of a head-and-shoulders top pattern, with two key levels at $4,311.26 and $4,282.67. If either of these levels breaks, the projected decline could range from $380 to over $400, meaning gold might fall below $3,900. In times of risk, opportunities also emerge. Strategically, $4,210 remains a strong support level; approaching this point, investors should consider building long positions while setting stop-loss orders. In the short term, selling is advisable when gold rebounds to $4,335–$4,350, with a stop-loss placed above $4,360. The target for such a trade would be $4,310. The above information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.

2026-09-10

"Gold Price at 4390 Must Be Defended" – Completed on October 9, 2026, 11:12 AM Volatility in gold prices intensified ahead of the release of inflation data that could influence next week's Federal Reserve interest rate decision. After touching a low of $4,341.61 during yesterday’s Asian session, spot gold formed a rare bullish engulfing candlestick pattern on the hourly chart and subsequently surged higher, peaking at $4,434.23 early in New York trading. Before London market close, prices sharply declined to $4,375.29, and have since remained within this range, fluctuating throughout the morning. On the hourly chart, an unusual diamond-shaped formation has emerged—characterized by gradually expanding volatility followed by a gradual contraction—indicating intense battling between bulls and bears from 9 p.m. to 11 p.m. last night, which has now temporarily subsided. On the hourly chart, spot gold has broken above the upper boundary of its previous descending channel and is currently consolidating around $4,390 or above. Tonight, the U.S. will release August PPI data, a leading indicator of inflation. Since hitting a low of $74.24 on August 5, New York spot crude oil has steadily climbed to a high of $87.69 on August 20. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index dropped to 98.56 on August 20, down nearly 2.7% from its peak of 101.26 on July 28. Market expectations are for the overall PPI to rise 0.4% month-on-month (up from 0.1% in July), with year-on-year growth projected between 4.7% and 5.1% (previously 4.7%). Core PPI is expected to increase 0.3% month-on-month (from 0.2% in July) and 4.6% year-on-year (up from 4.2%), signaling a likely further deterioration in September’s CPI inflation (to be released in October). Therefore, even if tomorrow’s August CPI report does not show a significant acceleration, persistent inflation above target levels will continue to pressure the Fed into raising interest rates. The key question then becomes whether Wash and the FOMC committee will choose to implement monetary policy contrary to President Trump’s views just before the midterm elections. I emphasize that a rate hike would be a reasonable move—it’s merely a matter of timing—and it remains unclear whether Fed officials completely disregard the potential strong negative reaction such a move might trigger in U.S. equities. As a result, financial markets are expected to remain highly volatile in the short term. Regarding gold, although it currently sits above the 270-degree Gann square level at $4,410, it continues to test the $4,400 support zone intermittently, exhibiting sharp fluctuations over shorter timeframes. Personally, I anticipate that gold will retest its peak and decline again following the release of the U.S. CPI data this Friday. The main reason is that both August PPI and CPI are unlikely to reflect any cooling in inflation. As long as inflation remains elevated, the market will still face the risk of a Fed rate hike next week, making it unwise to hold long positions through the weekend. The U.S.-Iran situation represents another risk factor, and investors should pay close attention. If gold breaks below $4,390, a stronger one-way downtrend may emerge. At best, gold could trade between $4,460 and $4,410; however, if it falls below $4,410 again, the risk of breaking below $4,390 will significantly increase. The above information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.

2026-09-09

Gold prices remain primarily driven by buying on dips   Completed on 9/9/2026 at 11:06   Yesterday's gold price volatility was unprecedented since the all-time high, with sharp and frequent fluctuations that made it a nightmare for trend followers. This has forced investors to bear higher stop-loss risks, while short-term traders must stay closely attuned to market movements and avoid being lured by price breakouts—otherwise, they too face substantial losses. Therefore, investors should adopt systematic trading strategies to prevent emotional decisions from affecting their buy-sell judgments. The intraday range for gold is expected to remain between $4,310 and $4,410; thus, when prices approach these levels, investors should immediately close any unfavorable positions upon seeing strong reversal signals on either the hourly or one-minute charts. Yesterday, gold failed to effectively break above the extended descending trendline from September 3rd and continued to decline within a balanced downward channel. However, after touching a low of $4,341.61 in this morning’s Asian session, spot gold formed a powerful bullish engulfing pattern on the hourly chart, suggesting that gold may have indeed signaled a bottom as anticipated today. While further declines are still possible following the rebound, today’s short-term bottom signal remains intact. Measuring the move since September 2nd using Fibonacci extensions from this morning’s low, a 100% extension would push gold up to $4,569.75. Although, viewed over longer timeframes, gold could potentially initiate a second leg down from September 3rd, with a 100% extension implying a drop to $4,096.50, this scenario is currently ruled out. The reason is that the hourly chart shows a head-and-shoulders top pattern over a broader timeframe, with the neckline at $4,282.67. Unless this level is clearly breached, and given today’s tendency toward a short-term bottom, the main strategy remains buying on dips. The above information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.

2026-09-08

"Gold Price Holds Steady at 4,410, Set for an Upward Breakout" – Completed on 8/9/2026 at 11:04 Yesterday, spot gold prices remained weak during the European morning session, dipping as low as $4,381.23 before stabilizing and gradually recovering. In the early New York session, it broke above the hourly 20SMA (currently around $4,409), then pulled back to consolidate before opening higher with a gap in today's Asian market, further strengthening to $4,440.84—surpassing the hourly 50SMA (currently around $4,432). However, on the hourly chart, gold is clearly constrained by a descending trendline drawn from the high of $4,511 on September 3, forming a bearish double-hourly reversal pattern. The technical resistance facing gold reflects traders' lack of clear direction, indicating a need for fresh market signals. ADP will release its latest weekly private-sector employment data tomorrow. Last Friday’s market reaction to stronger-than-expected non-farm payrolls was brief, suggesting skepticism about the Fed raising interest rates at next week’s meeting. Logically, if the Fed did not cut rates due to the initial July non-farm jobs drop of 23,000, why would it raise rates based on a single month of 162,000 job gains in August? Therefore, the ADP weekly employment report is likely to cause volatility rather than trigger a breakout. Regarding gold, it currently appears to be near the top of a balanced descending channel, while the double-hourly reversal suggests a higher probability of renewed downward movement. Short-term cyclical patterns indicate that the downtrend may reverse on Wednesday, though whether this will be triggered by weaker-than-expected ADP data remains to be seen. Additionally, the U.S. August PPI and CPI reports are scheduled for release this Thursday and Friday, respectively. I believe that if these figures meet expectations, the likelihood of a Fed rate hike next week will diminish. Moreover, would FOMC members supporting a rate hike suddenly increase from three (rotating members) to seven? Investors should therefore consider the possibility of a bullish move in gold. Once it breaks through the hourly descending trendline resistance, using Fibonacci extension at 100% of the move since September 2, gold could rise to $4,594.17. The hourly 20SMA at $4,409 will become a key intraday support level—coincidentally close to Gann’s square vertical angle at 270 degrees, offering strong support. The above information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.

2026-09-07

Gold Prices Remain Volatile, But 4366 Still Holdable   July 9, 2026, 10:56 AM   Last Friday, gold prices turned downward as expected, primarily due to strong U.S. non-farm employment data for August. The number of new jobs added in the previous month reached 162,000—nearly triple the market's expectations. Additionally, July’s job figures were revised upward from an initial decline of 23,000 to a gain of 21,000. The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.1%, while year-on-year average hourly earnings growth slightly declined from 3.2% to 3.1%. The unexpectedly robust labor market data boosted the dollar, causing gold prices to plunge by over $100 at one point. Spot gold initially dipped to a low of $4,366.03 in early New York trading before recovering noticeably. Strong employment data does not necessarily mean the Federal Reserve will consider raising interest rates. This week’s release of August CPI data will indicate whether improvements in the labor market can translate into stronger consumer spending and further inflationary pressure. Currently, markets expect the overall CPI to remain unchanged at 3.4% year-on-year, while core CPI is projected to slow slightly from 2.5% to 2.4%. This suggests that overall inflation remains high but has not accelerated further. Meanwhile, core inflation—the Fed’s primary gauge—appears to be easing gradually, which is insufficient to push the number of FOMC members supporting a rate hike above the threshold. However, even if inflation does not continue rising, the Fed’s lack of action on persistently high inflation provides market participants with reasons to sell the dollar and shift funds into other assets. Whenever confidence in the dollar wanes, gold becomes a natural destination (as no other fiat currency is more trusted than the U.S. dollar). Last week’s market was highly volatile, and similar fluctuations are expected this week. After breaking above the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) on the daily chart last week—currently around $4,467—gold clearly encountered resistance and subsequently reversed sharply lower. Therefore, the 20-SMA now serves as the key short-term resistance level, while $4,366 acts as a crucial support. If this level breaks, gold could test the Gann 225-degree angle at $4,310 for further support, which is likely to offer strong resistance. For now, it appears gold should hold above $4,366 and attempt a gradual recovery toward higher levels. The large bearish candlestick peak at $4,476.35 from last Friday will act as a significant short-term resistance. Intraday price movements are expected to remain contained between $4,476 and $4,366. The above information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.

2026-09-04

Gold Price Likely to Reversal and Decline Today – 9/4/2026, 10:38 AM Yesterday, spot gold prices peaked at $4,511, just one dollar above the upper end of the volatility range I had indicated earlier. Last week, comments by Federal Reserve Chair Waller at the Jackson Hole central bank symposium on inflation and interest rates were interpreted by markets as hawkish, triggering a sharp drop in gold prices. However, after hitting a low of $4,282.71 on Wednesday, gold reversed course within a single day, rising further yesterday to close above the 20-day simple moving average (currently around $4,468). This morning, it has been trading narrowly above that level. The rapid rise in gold prices appears to have been driven by remarks from Fed Governor Waller, who stated that if inflation continues to moderate steadily, he would support keeping interest rates unchanged at the mid-month policy meeting. He noted that the three-month core inflation rate, which the Fed closely monitors, has dropped significantly from 4.76% in February to the current 3.05%, indicating effective control over price pressures. Additionally, tariffs and energy price fluctuations have prevented inflation from spreading widely across the economy. Nevertheless, he emphasized that August's PPI and CPI data will influence his decision. These figures are scheduled for release on September 10 and 11, respectively. Given that gold prices have already climbed to $4,511 ahead of the August non-farm payroll report, unless employment unexpectedly declines again, the likelihood of gold falling after the data release is very high. On the daily chart, gold has rebounded more than 50% from its August 25 lows and has slightly surpassed the 20-day SMA. Cyclical trends also suggest a reversal today, making it unlikely that gold can sustainably stay above $4,500 in the short term. Conversely, using Fibonacci extension levels, if gold reverses downward again, a 100% extension could push prices down to $4,096.05. The above information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.

2026-09-03

Gold Price Holds Steady at 4,410, Awaiting an Upward Breakout   March 9, 2026, 11:04 AM   As expected, gold prices rebounded, primarily driven by the ADP employment data released last night. The report showed that private-sector job growth in August added only 38,000 positions—below the anticipated 47,000 and slightly revised upward from the previous figure of 44,000 to 46,000. This marked the second-worst monthly performance so far this year. From January to August, the average monthly job gain stood at 68,000. These figures have led markets to expect that tomorrow’s official non-farm payroll report will also show a slowdown in labor market growth, cooling expectations for further Federal Reserve rate hikes. On the hourly chart, spot gold hit its lowest level of the day at $4,282.67 during yesterday’s Asian session before gradually recovering. However, following the release of the ADP data, gold showed little immediate reaction. It wasn’t until 45 minutes later that it surged above the 50-period SMA (currently around $4,366), reaching a high of $4,397.37. After briefly consolidating along the moving average, gold rose again toward the end of the New York session, peaking at $4,391.45. This morning in Asia, gold continued its upward momentum, pushing higher and setting new intraday highs above $4,425. Technically, gold appears to have stabilized above the 50SMA and is now poised to break through and reestablish support at the Gann 270-degree vertical angle at $4,410. With favorable confirmation from the upcoming non-farm data, gold could target $4,460 and potentially even challenge $4,510 again. Using Fibonacci retracement levels, if gold rebounds by 50% of its largest decline since August 25, it could reach $4,489.82—a key resistance level to watch. According to the TD line analysis, the projected price target after breaking above the descending trendline is approximately $4,522. Therefore, gold is likely to trade between $4,410 and $4,510 over the next two days. However, should the August non-farm data come in strongly—such as with job gains exceeding 150,000 or even 200,000—$4,410 could once again become a significant resistance level, while $4,210 would face a serious test. The above information is for reference purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

2026-09-02

Gold prices are highly sensitive to the upcoming non-farm data. 2/9/2026 11:19 AM   After failing multiple times to break above $4,450 over the past two trading sessions, gold has broken downward. As seen on the hourly chart, prices continued to hit a recent low in this morning's Asian session at $4,287.54, with the weak support level of the Gann 225-degree angle at $4,310 also giving way. However, the 9RSI has dropped to 15, suggesting a strong rebound is likely. Conservative investors should wait patiently for a bullish engulfing pattern on the hourly chart before entering the market. Friends are currently awaiting tonight’s ADP release of August non-farm employment data as a potential turning point. The market currently expects an increase of 48,000 jobs. Unless new job additions exceed 100,000, gold is expected to rally significantly. Nevertheless, the market may still consolidate at lower levels or even drop near $4,210, clearing out long positions before positioning ahead of Friday’s official non-farm employment report. On the daily chart, gold has already fallen below the 20SMA (4,445), with the 50SMA (4,222) now serving as the final defense line. I believe gold still has strong potential to hold this level. It’s important to note that when prices approach key support levels just before major data releases, they often reverse regardless of how poor the data turns out. The $4,210 level lies along the Gann square’s 180-degree angle, making its support stronger than that at $4,310. If we consider further downside risks—such as a breakdown below $4,200 or even $4,000—the first trigger would be the Federal Reserve’s September rate decision. Only if both non-farm employment and inflation move in the same direction will the probability increase. At present, these factors remain in tension. The above information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.

2026-09-01

"Gold Volatility Narrows, Awaiting Breakout" – Completed on 1/9/2026 at 10:20   Yesterday's gold price showed unusually calm movement. Spot gold initially surged to $4,464.07 during early Asian trading, then quickly reversed, dipping as low as $4,415.74 before beginning a rebound. However, the day’s high and low were effectively established within this two-and-a-half-hour window. Gold failed to break out of this less-than-$49 range during both European and New York sessions. Markets appear temporarily confident in the Federal Reserve’s resolve under Powell to combat inflation, yet this contrasts sharply with the weak labor market. Gold briefly tested below the 20-period SMA on the daily chart ($4,447), suggesting that traders are awaiting a clearer breakout signal. On the same timeframe, my personal preference—or perhaps habit—is not to chase sell opportunities when prices reach major moving averages, nor do I buy aggressively upon reaching them; instead, I wait for new breakout signals from the market before acting. Currently, gold is hovering near the 20-period SMA on the daily chart, so if you're considering selling, it would be wise to look for confirmation from other timeframes. For example, on the hourly chart, the downtrend appears more evident—though stop-loss levels should also be determined based on this shorter-term view. Looking at the hourly chart, the first noticeable pattern is a descending flag formation. The rebound from yesterday’s low reached only about 23.6% of Friday’s New York high-to-low decline, placing the current level around $4,460, indicating relatively weak momentum. Measured by a 1:1 Fibonacci extension, gold could potentially fall further to $4,227. If a true downward breakout occurs, which price levels might offer significant support before reaching $4,227? From a Gann Square perspective, $4,310 lies along the 225-degree angle, representing weak support (or weak resistance). $4,210 sits at the 180-degree angle, marking strong support (or strong resistance). The projected downside target of $4,227 is close to this strong support zone at $4,210, suggesting that a bounce may be imminent once gold approaches $4,227. Meanwhile, $4,316.59 corresponds to the 61.8% Fibonacci extension, while $4,344.26 marks the 50% extension level. Therefore, the area between $4,344 and $4,316 could represent the first key support zone. Should gold break above $4,460, resistance is expected at $4,510—the Gann 315-degree angle. The above analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.