Gold market analysis

Gold Price Expected to Challenge $3,536 29/8/2025 10:06 Finalized 

Yesterday, the spot gold price closed above the $3,400 mark, breaking through the top of August 8th and thus breaking out of the narrowing triangle formed since July 23rd. It is expected to climb further in the short term. However, as I pointed out yesterday, since April 21st, every time the gold price closed above $3,400, it presented a two-day reversal pattern and returned to close below $3,400. After the gold price closed above $3,400 again yesterday, will it repeat this pattern? Therefore, today's closing price of the gold price becomes extremely important. 

Gold prices broke through the triangular pattern. 

From the daily chart, the gold price's upward break of the TD downtrend line on Tuesday this week was an effective breakthrough. The measured upward target is approximately $3,536. Of course, there may be obstacles on the way to this level, and whether the reverse force can push the gold price down or more and more funds are betting on the gold price continuing to rise, and with the continuous momentum, it will keep climbing? Although the gold price hit a record high of $3,500 on April 22, it closed at $3,382.5 on that day. The highest closing price so far was $3,432.6 on June 13, which is also the highest weekly closing price in the history of the gold price. This is of great reference significance for whether the gold price can further climb. 

SPDR has been increasing its holdings of gold for four consecutive days. 

On the other hand, SPDR Gold ETF increased its gold holdings from Monday to Thursday this week. Yesterday, it significantly increased its holdings by 5.44 tons, bringing the total holdings to 967.94 tons. Powell's dovish remarks last Friday clearly changed the market's view on the gold market. Whether the gold price can close above $3,400 today will be a key indicator for the future. If the gold price closes above $3,400 for two consecutive trading days and then closes above $3,432.6 for two consecutive days, it will break through the resistance of the flat-topped ascending triangle formed since early April this year. 

$3,400 is an important psychological support. 

In the short term, gold prices rose to a high of $3,423 in the late New York session yesterday before retreating. This morning, they continued to test the intraday low at $3,408. However, it is believed that $3,400 has become a strong psychological support level, and it is expected that bulls will defend this position. Gold prices have been supported multiple times when testing the 50-hour SMA (currently around $3,395). Although the deeper and most important support level is $3,370, which could be the maximum acceptable adjustment target, this would break the hourly chart's upward trend, so it is unlikely to occur! 

The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. 

MTF Special Analyst Zheng Guangfu