Gold market analysis

"Gold Price at $3,660 Acts as a Strong Short-Term Resistance" 9/9/2025 9:41 Completed 

Gold prices on Monday did not weaken as expected. They only slightly declined in the early Asian market but continued to rise after the European market opened. Spot gold prices reached a new high of $3,646 near the midday in New York. However, from the hourly chart, it can be seen that after reaching the new high, gold prices closed lower with a bearish candle, which was the first bearish candle since the European market opened. Subsequently, it further retraced to $3,633. Yesterday, it was pointed out that based on the Gann Square and a $50 price difference, the short-term resistance levels were $3,610 and $3,660, with $3,660 being the strongest resistance. Yesterday, the spot gold price was only $14 away from this level, so $3,660 remains the key short-term resistance for gold prices at present. 

Political unrest in France benefits gold prices. 

Gold prices remain supported by multiple objective factors, such as the lack of a ceasefire timetable between Russia and Ukraine, many countries still not reaching tariff agreements with the United States, the risk of recession in the US, and the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates as early as next week. Currently, the political situation in France is drawing attention and has also become an excuse for the continuous rise in gold prices. French Prime Minister Philippe earlier requested a vote of confidence from the National Assembly on his plan to significantly cut the budget to reduce the government's financial pressure, but the plan was rejected with 364 votes against and 194 in favor. Philippe is expected to resign today. Another poll shows that 49% of respondents want President Macron to step down, and 15% hope for the dissolution of the government. 

ECB President Lagarde expressed concern over the political situation in France. Before that, she also warned that the collapse of any government in the eurozone is a worrying risk. The ECB will hold an interest rate meeting this Thursday. Currently, the market expects the interest rate to remain unchanged. If there is an unexpected rate cut, apart from putting pressure on the euro, it is believed that gold prices will rise further under the background that the Fed is likely to cut interest rates next week. 

Strong support from the 20-hour SMA 

Although the gold price has been on the rise, there have been adjustments during this period. As seen from the hourly chart, whenever the 9RSI reaches 80 or above, the gold price experiences a pullback, and the 20SMA currently appears to be a reliable support line. This morning, the gold price reached a new high of $3,646.68, slightly higher than yesterday's high of $3,646.43. It then pulled back to the $3,642 level. There is a possibility of a double top formation in the short term, but for now, the first important support level is the 20SMA on the hourly chart at $3,626. The daily chart of the gold price has not yet sent out a signal of a downturn. It remains to be seen whether it can break through the resistance at $3,660. However, given that the 9RSI on the quarterly chart of the gold price has long exceeded 90, the time for a major decline is getting closer. Investors should not be greedy for gains and ignore losses, and must not overlook any strong signals of a downturn in any time frame. 

The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. 

MTF  Special Analyst Zheng Guangfu