Gold market analysis

"Gold Price Peak Is Not Unpredictable" 23/9/2025 10:01 Completed 

Gold prices have returned to the pattern of setting new highs daily. Yesterday, the full-day range exceeded $65, with an actual increase of $62.87. In the early Asian session today, it broke through the peak again, reaching as high as $3,759.18. There is no need to delve into the reasons for the continuous rise in gold prices. Neither inflation nor interest rates can explain the strength of gold. The only certain and correct answer is the continuous inflow of funds into the gold market, and the reasons why the owners of the related funds invest in the gold market vary. 

Don't be provoked by the gold price and lose your rationality. 

Most investors tend to suffer from a fear of heights when facing a repeatedly rising gold price that keeps setting new highs. Even if they are very disciplined and do not trade against the market, they will still be stopped out when the price drops, even if the decline is not significant and the price quickly rebounds. Investors who are still bearish on gold should adjust their mindset. Regarding the current gold price, they should just consider it as a number and not define it as a historical high. Just like an automatic trading system, it only distinguishes between buy and sell signals and takes corresponding actions. It does not consider whether the price is too high or too low. Successful traders are often "inhuman". They never think that the price movement is targeting them and will never be provoked into a retaliatory mentality and lose their rationality. 

In the short term, gold prices continued to reach new highs this morning up to $3,759.18 before a sharp decline, hitting a low of $3,747.96 and briefly breaking through the 5-minute chart's 20SMA (currently around $3,749.38). Subsequently, gold prices rebounded again. From the 5-minute chart, it can be seen that around $3,749 is the top of the previous consolidation range. As long as gold prices remain above the 20SMA, a sell-off should only be considered if three consecutive candlesticks close below this line and it is confirmed that $3,749 has been breached. From the hourly chart, gold prices still maintain the upward trend that began after the bearish engulfing pattern at 9 p.m. last night, and remain balanced with the 20SMA. If one wants to take a short position, it must wait for gold prices to close below $3,745.88 or clearly break through the 20SMA. 

The top of the gold price may be formed today. 

Is the top of the gold price now unpredictable? The Gann Square that I have been using for over 20 years can calculate any level of resistance or support. The previous range of the gold price was between 3,660 and 3,710 US dollars. Since 3,710 US dollars has clearly been broken through, the current range is between 3,710 and 3,760 US dollars. Therefore, the high of 3,759.18 US dollars this morning might be the highest point of the day. Of course, if the gold price clearly breaks through and holds above 3,760 US dollars, the next level of resistance will be 3,810 US dollars. As this level is on a horizontal line, the resistance is relatively greater, and the adjustment range of the gold price at that time will be larger! 

The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. 

MTF Special Analyst Zheng Guangfu