Gold market analysis

2020-04-20

After a long holiday in Hong Kong, the number of new cases in novel coronavirus has remained at the unit level every day. Readers are encouraged to continue to persevere for a while and take preventive measures to protect the health of themselves and those around them. Only in this way can it be meaningful to make money. Hong Kong's stock market has performed poorly in the past week. The Hang Seng Index barely rose or fell in the first three trading days. On Friday, China's National Bureau of Statistics announced its GDP for the first quarter, which was 20.65 trillion yuan. The quarterly decline was 9.8% and the annual negative growth was 6.8%, which was not only 6% lower than the market expectation, but also the first negative growth since 1992. However, the expected adverse news was eased by the introduction of funds such as interest rate cut and rate cut. The Hang Seng Index rose to 24,620 and closed at 24,380 litres by 1.5% thanks to Ridgeway's ability to treat new pneumonia.   For the same reason, the U.S. stock market also rose sharply in the past Friday, with the Dow Jones index up 700 or 3%.  This offset the decline caused by the following two bad data. The United States announced last Thursday that the number of first-time applications for unemployment benefits increased by another 5.25 million last week (up to April 11).  The United States was hit by the closure of economic activities due to the impact of the novel coronavirus epidemic and epidemic prevention measures. In the past four weeks, a total of 22 million people have applied for unemployment benefits for the first time.  The unemployment rate in the United States is currently at least about 17%. Another piece of bad news is that US retail sales plunged 8.7% in March, the largest monthly decline in history.  However, I'm afraid this record will be broken soon, because Trump officially declared a state of emergency in the United States in mid-March. And launched a number of epidemic prevention measures to deal with novel coronavirus.  The American consumer pattern is the main driving force of the American economy, contributing two-thirds to economic production.  Retail sales have plummeted and GDP is expected to be hit hard in the first quarter.   Trump is eager to save the economy to improve his chances of winning the presidential election, even though he knows that the introduction of unlimited quantitative easing will lead to inflation. However, this is the most effective method in the short term, knowing that drinking poison to quench thirst is a must.  And commodity prices will eventually rise because of the flood of capital. First, oil price.  The trend of oil price is totally different from the performance of the U.S. stock market on Friday. The decline of oil price turned sharp on that day, reaching as low as 17.47 U.S. dollars. The closing price rose to 18.44 U.S. dollars and still fell 6.8%. Oil prices are bound to fluctuate before oil-producing countries reach an agreement to cut production. However, oil commodities can already be put on the watch list or bought speculatively close to US$ 18, which is expected to return to 20 yuan's psychological barrier. The good news for oil prices is that U.S. media reported that several state governments are about to announce timetables for easing epidemic prevention measures, hoping to restart the economy in May.  It can be seen that doing a good job in the economy is the top priority of the U.S. government. Whether it can be restarted in May is unknown, but it is an inevitable strategy to relax the restrictions in due course and step by step, and the limited resumption of work by the US Boeing Company this week is evidence.   As expected last week, the price of gold rose above 1700 after breaking through 1683, and reached 1750 on April 15. Unfortunately, the rally was too rapid and many people made profits. On Thursday, the price of gold reached double-top and fell through the bottom line 1716 of this month's upward channel before returning to 1685. Rise fast and fall fast.  However, it is also a matter of time before the price of gold drops to its current level, and it is also a matter of time before it returns to 1700 or higher. When the price of gold softens to below 1670, it can begin to absorb while the price is low. For detailed analysis and operation suggestions, please CLICK the following links to join the group and inquire with the administrator. https://chat.whatsapp.com/Ippy9Pn5hjyEV7gtgCbVo0

2020-04-17

Recently, the global economy has been affected, but the residential concept industry has benefited. Last night, U.S. stocks also benefited from the support of Amazon and NETFLIX. So that that stock market can gain momentum to stabilize.  The number of people applying for unemployment assistance for the first time in the United States was reported to be 5.425 million. Although it was lower than expected, many people were still unemployed. At one point, the atmosphere around the big market was so strong that gold prices quickly softened after rising to an intraday high of 1738.  U.S. stocks' mid-section strength supported the performance of the asset market. The epidemic has isolated communities, and online business has become popular, propping up the market performance. Gold prices have thus returned to their weekly gains. Technically, the high price of gold 1740 has created a double-top pressure. There is a chance to test the low price further and try the 1700 psychological barrier again. More kinetic energy needs to be accumulated below before it can break upward again, and short-term peak pressure needs to be carefully observed. For detailed analysis and operation suggestions, please CLICK the following links to join the group and inquire with the administrator. https://chat.whatsapp.com/Ippy9Pn5hjyEV7gtgCbVo0

2020-04-16

The poor economic figures released by the United States cite the recession that has supported the rise of gold. However, some people are happy and others are worried. Oil prices are affected by the epidemic. Demand has fallen sharply, oil stocks have exploded and oil prices have fallen to a nearly 20-year low.  Gold prices were adjusted in the early Asian market period, but they soon regained their upward trend. U.S. retail sales plunged 8.7%, worse than expected. new york's manufacturing index fell further to -78.2, a record low. The U.S. economy is shrinking across the board. Late at night, the Federal Reserve's Brown Book pointed out that economic activity in all regions of the United States has dropped sharply due to the new crown pneumonia. The employment population has declined, among which retail, tourism and leisure, as well as hotel industry have been hit hardest, and layoffs have also begun to occur. Federal Reserve in all parts of the world said that commercial contracts faced extremely high uncertainty. Gold prices are gradually stabilizing, but oil prices are declining due to a sharp drop in demand. Global oil demand will plummet 9% this year, the biggest drop on record. OPEC+ production cuts cannot make up for the drop in demand. The IEA is even more alarmed by the excess supply of crude oil, saying that oil reserves will probably explode in the next few weeks. During the new york period, oil prices even lost US$ 20, a nearly 20-year low. Tonight, the United States will announce the number of first-time jobless claims in a week and the Philadelphia Federal Reserve's manufacturing index. It is expected that the epidemic will continue to affect the market and demand for safe haven will remain strong. For detailed analysis and operation suggestions, please CLICK the following links to join the group and inquire with the administrator. https://chat.whatsapp.com/Ippy9Pn5hjyEV7gtgCbVo0

2020-04-15

Gold prices hit another seven-year high. The worst of the epidemic is expected to have passed and the Dow Jones Industrial Average has begun to rebound. However, the economy is still afraid of falling, stimulating the market's demand for gold as a safe haven. Gold prices beat the big markets, hitting a new seven-year high. tonight, many heavy data are coming back to observe the impact of the epidemic on the economy. The United States will announce the monthly retail sales rate for March, which was -0.5% before the data and -8% expected.  "Terror Data" Dramatically Declines, The risk of recession in the US economy is bound to increase, and the US dollar, gold and other markets are likely to see a big market.  If the data released at that time are worse than the already pessimistic market expectations, Gold may be boosted.  The epidemic will continue to worsen U.S. economic data, and increased debt pressure will also trigger more gold hedging purchases. Therefore, the gold price is expected to continue its upward trend in the second quarter, with a high point breaking 1800 USD/oz.  As the liquidity crisis slows down, the US dollar may return to normal. That is, following the decline of important U.S. economic data and weakening.  As a result, the probability of gold going up is higher. How difficult is the US retail industry now?  We can see one thing or two from the following series of data: On the one hand, the Financial Times quoted the analysis of US research institution Coresight as saying that as many as 630,000 retail stores in the United States were forced to close down under the influence of the national blockade policy. Data from the American Retailers Association (NRF) show that US retail sales will drop by US$ 430 billion in the next three months. On the other hand, so far, major retailers such as US Department Store, GAP, karl korsch Department Store and L Brands have announced large-scale layoffs or layoff plans. Among them, 775 stores owned by Meisi Department Store have all been closed before the end of March.  The epidemic has hit the US retail industry more than any previous crisis. Only by changing the business model and other structural reforms can enterprises have the opportunity to overcome the current difficulties. In addition, the Federal Reserve will also release a brown book report late at night, which can be described as an indicator of the Fed's future actions. Attention should be paid to whether its short-term bond issuance scale will expand, thus triggering asset market prices. For detailed analysis and operation suggestions, please CLICK the following links to join the group and inquire with the administrator. https://chat.whatsapp.com/Ippy9Pn5hjyEV7gtgCbVo0

2020-04-14

Gold prices hit a 7-year high on schedule and stabilized after breaking the 1700 mark. The next target will challenge the 2012 high of 1768.  A global recession is inevitable. In addition, fearing that the performance of American enterprises will be reflected one by one, the demand for safe haven has stimulated the market's desire for gold to enter the market. Countries have cut interest rates one after another, keeping interest rates low and QE unlimited. It also reduces the cost of gold holders.  Following the resumption of trading on Easter weekend, new york gold futures surged to 1,761 US dollars on Monday, a new closing high since October 11, 2012. Spot gold rose more than US$ 40. After stabilizing in the early period, it broke through sharply at night and rose to US$ 1723 for respite.  The $2.3 trillion rescue plan launched by the United States last Thursday, I believe it will still stimulate the demand for safe haven in the market, and gold prices are expected to continue to stabilize and challenge the high level step by step.  Another focus of the market is Russia's agreement with the oil group to cut production. It is expected to reduce production by 20 million barrels, which will also support oil prices in the short term. For detailed analysis and operation suggestions, please CLICK the following links to join the group and inquire with the administrator. https://chat.whatsapp.com/Ippy9Pn5hjyEV7gtgCbVo0

2020-04-13

The U.S. stock market gave investors a good Friday instead of a good Friday before Thursday's long holiday because the U.S. stock market has performed well in the past week, with the S&P 500 index up 12 percent. The increase in many industries is also bright. However, in novel coronavirus's system of hitting new highs, corporate profits will inevitably be affected. This only reflects investors' over-selling due to panic, rather than the economy returning to normal. On the other hand, U.S. Democratic Party Sanders announced on April 8 that he would withdraw from the party's presidential nomination war, the withdrawal of the candidate who is more challenging to Trump's presidency. This reflects that trump's unlimited quantitative easing policy is unshakable. the problem of capital fracture caused by the suspension of enterprises will definitely be solved by the federal reserve, which is also the main reason why the Dow Jones index rose 607 on that day.   Also good for the investment market was the announcement last week by the Federal Reserve of the minutes of the emergency interest rate meeting held on the 15th of last month, showing that policy members expected interest rates to remain close to zero in the foreseeable future. This shows that the US dollar is still one of the best capital havens. After a sharp rebound from the March low, the valuation has returned to the average level, with the current price-earnings ratio of the index rising to about 18 times, coupled with downward pressure on corporate profits. At present, U.S. stocks are not cheap and should not expect too much. The oil price is convenient. Although the market expects the major oil producing countries to reduce their production, although there is a consensus among the oil producing countries on the issue, it is difficult to reach an agreement on the reduction of production in the interests of many countries. The final agreement is to reduce the production of crude oil by 10 million barrels per day starting from May. The rate of production reduction was lower than the market expectation. Coupled with the fact that global economic activity has almost stopped due to the ravages of the new pneumonia, the demand for oil has been further reduced. Oil prices during the new york period fell by 2.33 US dollars or 9.3%. It is estimated that oil prices may approach the low level this year, providing opportunities for market entry.   In addition to the United States, according to Reuters, major EU member states have also launched a variety of anti-epidemic programs, including 240 billion Euros of loans and 100 billion Euros of employment guarantee funds from the ESM to EU member states. Under the circumstances that many central banks have implemented helicopter money allocation to save the nation, gold price, as expected last week, has been pumped up to 1683 new resistance level after successfully challenging 1645. However, the upward trend is too rapid and may have to wait for the market high level to digest and consolidate. Driven by the policy of non-stop banknote printing, gold price will challenge the high of 1703 at the beginning of the year. The major event worth noting this week is that on April 17, China will announce its GDP for the first quarter, which is relative to the US total retail sales in March (April 15), the number of new housing construction and the number of new first-time jobless claims (April 16), which have definitely fallen. It turns out that China is the first country to emerge from the epidemic. The scale of the economic attack brought by the virus will be announced first in the world and will have more market reference value.

2020-04-09

The epidemic situation continued to ferment, assets flowed into the safe-haven market, the US dollar index hit the 100 mark again, and the gold price also remained stable.  A large number of overseas workers were shut down due to the epidemic. The failure to return home has broken the wage remittance chain, leading to the devaluation of a large number of local currencies, supporting the rise of the US dollar and the functioning of the safe haven market. Gold prices are not limited by the rise of the US dollar and continue to stabilize. After rising above 1660, gold prices will remain strong. It is expected that the gold market will maintain a high yield and hit 1675 resistance before the long weekend holiday. For detailed analysis and operation suggestions, please CLICK the following links to join the group and inquire with the administrator. https://chat.whatsapp.com/Ippy9Pn5hjyEV7gtgCbVo0

2020-04-08

Market sentiment is still not fully recovered. U.S. stocks fell after a sharp rise of 1,000 points last night. The U.S. dollar index also fell slightly. Gold prices failed to stabilize after hitting 1680. The market remained cautious until it reached the 1700 mark. Although the overall strength remained strong, the intermediate volatility was also very large. It is expected that the gold price will return to its earlier sharp rise before it can break through again. However, the central banks will announce the record of the recent emergency interest rate cut one after another, which will be announced in the early hours of this evening. Since the last regular meeting was cancelled after the emergency interest rate cut, attention should be paid to the water release rate. Phase information has been digested by the market and is expected to maintain zero interest rate for a long time. However, details such as the strength and depth of QE without an upper limit are also worthy of attention. If we see that the Federal Reserve is inclined to release doves further, it will inject momentum into gold prices. For detailed analysis and operation suggestions, please CLICK the following links to join the group and inquire with the administrator. https://chat.whatsapp.com/Ippy9Pn5hjyEV7gtgCbVo0

2020-04-07

The market hopes that the worst of the epidemic has passed and the market has resumed its momentum. Stock markets around the world have generally risen. However, gold prices have not stopped rising. Gold futures in new york have hit another seven-year high, with spot gold once reaching the level of US$ 1680. Although the optimism has somewhat subsided the risk aversion in the market, with the outbreak of the disease in the past and the support of low-interest environment in various countries, the gold price has successfully broken through and the technical side is also optimistic. The future market continues to advance to a higher level. For detailed analysis and operation suggestions, please CLICK the following links to join the group and inquire with the administrator. https://chat.whatsapp.com/Ippy9Pn5hjyEV7gtgCbVo0

2020-04-03

U.S. President Trump hopes Russia and Saudi Arabia will cut production by 10 million barrels of crude oil, stimulating oil prices to soar by more than 30 percent, becoming the focus of the market and masking the unfavorable performance of the U.S. labor market. Gold prices have risen above 1600, but new non-agricultural jobs and unemployment in the United States are the focus of the week tonight, and the labor market is bound to deteriorate, which is likely to cause market volatility again. Last night, the United States announced that the number of people applying for unemployment assistance for the first time in the week ending March 28 was 6.668 million, far higher than the expected 3.5 million. The previous value was revised from 3.283 million to 3.307 million. The number of people broke the record again, which may mean that the recession that the market is most worried about has already come.  If the epidemic situation is not effectively controlled, there will be more warning signals in the US job market. This will not be conducive to the atmosphere of the big market. The US labor market is beginning to reflect the impact of the epidemic. The US dollar will continue to play its role as a financial haven.   Tonight, the United States will release the March non-farm employment report. At present, the market generally expects that the number of non-farm employment will decrease by 100,000, which will be the first non-farm employment report with negative increase in nearly 10 years. However, the data may still be affected by the lag effect or may not reflect the decline in jobs, as the survey was conducted before the massive blockade.  Other analysts pointed out that, Even if the first negative non-agricultural employment report in nearly 10 years does appear, the market may not experience the expected earthquake.  The suspension of US economic activity has been reflected in a number of figures. (As before, the number of jobless claims and the monthly rate of industrial output, etc.), the timeliness and effectiveness of non-agricultural services are not as good as before, and the market has already digested the relevant expectations. In addition, the current policy of the Federal Reserve is not determined by employment and inflation data. Resisting the economic impact of the epidemic is the top priority of the Federal Reserve. The impact of non-agricultural data on the future policy direction of the Federal Reserve is not the same. If only a decrease of about 100,000 is recorded as expected, there may not be much shock to the market.   However, if there is a sharp cut in non-agriculture, which is much lower than expected, I am afraid it will greatly scare the market.  I believe gold may continue to play an important role in investor allocation in the next few months. However, volatility will remain quite high.  The prolonged economic weakness and signs of increasingly aggressive stimulus measures by governments and central banks should provide some support for gold. The holding of SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed listed trading fund, rose 0.18% to 968.75 tons, the highest level since October 2016, reflecting market sentiment. According to data compiled by Bloomberg, investors increased their holdings of gold ETF for eight consecutive trading days as of Wednesday, the longest since February, when ETF gold holdings increased by 5 tons to 2,821 tons. Gold was sold off because investors needed liquidity after the stock market plummeted. Without further decline in the stock market, gold also rebounded.  But once the stock market drops again, gold may be dragged down again. Gold is an asset that can hedge against uncertainty, whether it is macroeconomic uncertainty, geopolitical uncertainty or uncertainty like this epidemic.  Gold is an excellent safe haven asset. In case of uncertainty, gold will perform better than other assets.

2020-04-02

Yesterday, under pressure from Britain, two major banking groups, Standard Chartered Bank and HSBC, stopped paying dividends. This was not conducive to the atmosphere of the big market, and the US labor market began to reflect the impact of the epidemic. The US dollar continued to play its role as a capital refuge. Non-US currencies generally fell back. Oil prices and gold prices also fell to new lows in the week.  U.S. Announces ADP Employment in March. The data recorded-27,000, the lowest level since January 2010, but better than the expected-150,000, with the previous value dropping from 183,000 to 179,000. It is worth noting that this information may not fully reflect the current employment situation in the United States under the impact of the epidemic.  ADP Employment Data said the data used in the March report ended on March 12. It does not reflect the overall impact of the epidemic on the overall employment situation, including the unemployment application announced on March 26, 2020.   In other words, the non-agricultural employment data to be released on Friday may encounter the same problem.  And considering the weakness of the job market has been talked about many times in this period of time, Some market expectations have been digested, and the market may not be able to meet the long-awaited big market on Friday. However, unlike the above two reports, the performance of the two job market data to be released tonight is likely to be much worse than ADP's employment data, and investors need to be psychologically prepared. Including the number of challenger enterprise layoffs in March and the number of first-time claims for unemployment assistance in a week, the market currently expects the figure to reach 3.5 million, up from 3.283 million last week.   Gold prices fluctuated up and down yesterday, starting consolidation in the new trading range as scheduled.  Technically, the negative line in the daily chart retreated to a lower level and fell below the 6,000 mark after finishing.  The trading range moves down, The 1600 barrier supports variable resistance and further withdrawal is needed.  After finishing for 4 hours, it fell through Buliga Road and passed through the lower rail. The lower rail opened its mouth downward, breaking the interval finishing, and the short line turned empty. In terms of hourly rate, gold fluctuated widely and fell back around 1595 when it surged at midnight in the U.S. market. Although the rebound space was slightly larger, the final closing price was still around 1590. In the medium and long term, due to the risk of recession in the recent economic situation, gold is naturally highly sought after as a safe-haven currency, and its long-term rise will remain unchanged, but the gold price in the market will fall back due to the rise of the US dollar. High prices can be short-term, and the end of the weekly chart rise must be accompanied by a greater level of adjustment. Gold is the market that has failed to stabilize above 1600 effectively. The upper short-term focus is on resistance near 1603. The following short-term focus is on 1573 support, which can be operated in this interval first.

2020-04-01

The Russian Central Bank suddenly announced yesterday that it would stop buying 1/4 of its domestic gold production. As a result of the news, the gold price eased back to a week-low level and reported its recent increase. In addition, US President Trump's plan to push back the pound infrastructure plan and invest in infrastructure also supported the trend of the US dollar.  The US dollar has continued to rebound this week. Although the tight liquidity in the market seems to have come to an end, However, there is still a need for hedging in market sentiment, which has stimulated investors' demand for US dollars. Gold itself has also been boosted by its hedging function. However, the Russian Central Bank said earlier that it will no longer buy domestically produced gold. As a result, the price of gold rose feebly and lost the US$ 1,600 mark in the evening. The price of gold was almost in place at a minimum of US$ 1,569.  Tonight, the United States will announce ADP private jobs commonly known as small non-agricultural jobs. We can pay attention to the performance of the labor market and observe the current economic situation in the United States. Gold prices have the opportunity to further decline and find support below before they can climb again.   Russia's central bank is currently the world's largest buyer of gold. The decision to stop buying gold has not been explained. It is only said that this is a decision made by the country after examining its financial situation.  In the past few years in Russia, He has been increasing his gold reserve as a human resource. By the end of February, his gold reserve had reached 2279.2 tons, ranking fifth in the world with a value of 114 billion US dollars. The reserve level was quite high. The central bank bought 158.1 tons of gold last year. It is estimated that the gold reserve accounts for a high proportion of the country's overall level. In addition, the rise in gold prices in the past two years has caused Russia to suspend its purchase plan.  Although the central bank has reduced its holdings, However, the market demand for gold is very high. Gold ETF recorded its largest capital inflow in nearly 10 years. Last week, some ETF funds recorded an inflow of nearly 3 billion US dollars, the largest inflow since 2009.   Technically, the gold price has lost its earlier consolidation range, and there will be a short-term weak spot. It is expected that the gold price will not rebound back to the 1600 mark.  Gold prices generally consolidated between 1595 and 1630 last week. At present, the trading range is lost, and the calculation adjustment range can reach 1,570 US dollars. Although gold price has hit this position for a time, the bottom may not stabilize immediately. Therefore, there is still a chance to hit this level again and then consolidate again. U.S. President Trump's introduction of another heavy-pound infrastructure rescue measure will also give a strong shot in the arm to market confidence, thus reducing the demand for safe haven in the market. Gold price, that is, the market trend, is not too optimistic. U.S. will announce ADP job growth tonight, which is expected to record negative growth. However, if the figure is too frightening, it may increase the market's demand for safe haven against U.S. dollars and weaken the trend of the gold market.

2020-03-31

After U.S. stocks rebounded from a low level last week, and the concerted efforts of various countries to rescue the market are gradually yielding results, the liquidity tension in the market has begun to ease, the risk aversion mood has cooled slightly, and the asset market has gained popularity. The rise of gold was limited, but the oil price closed at only US$ 20, the lowest level since 2002, which also attracted market attention.  The market is still digesting the US$ 2 trillion stimulus package. In the early days, the Federal Reserve implemented unprecedented easing measures such as interest rate reduction to zero and unlimited QE. When the monetary policy was not completed, the fiscal policy began to come into play. The Federal Reserve will not relent in dealing with the risks brought by the epidemic to the economy. U.S. stocks have rebounded sharply by nearly 20% from their low levels, with about 15% of the index and Nasdaq. More voices are beginning to appear in the market saying that the stock market may have bottomed out. With the restoration of market confidence, the price fluctuation will be reduced accordingly.   The US dollar rebounded slightly last night. After a round of selling last week, the US-foreign exchange weighted index fell back to below 100. However, as market confidence recovered, hedging sentiment and hot money flows began to readjust. U.S. stocks and U.S. dollars develop simultaneously.  Sterling failed to hit the 1.25 mark and vomited ahead. Euro also vomited to the 1.10 mark. Non-US currency vomited also suppressed the upward trend of gold price. Gold once tested the 1630 mark yesterday, but it failed to stabilize and fell back again. However, the decline was not deep, showing a more arrogant performance and finishing at a high level.  Technically, there is still no breakthrough in gold price. In the near future trading range, it can continue to operate, selling high and buying low.   Another focus of the market is the recent decline in oil prices. Oil prices in the new york period fell more than 100% at one point and closed at 20, the lowest closing price since February 2002.  Oil prices are experiencing two major perplexing factors. Talks between the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies broke down. Price war continued to put pressure on oil prices. What is more, the epidemic situation caused a global economic downturn, a sharp drop in industrial demand and the grounding of several flights. The demand for oil prices has also been greatly affected, with no hope of bottoming out in the short term.  In addition, there are also reports that crude oil stocks in the Dekuxin region for crude oil futures delivery have increased by more than 4 million barrels in the past week, causing the market to worry that stocks are running out. Also added to the pressure of the current price, short-term stability is also difficult.

2020-03-30

Last week, the world continued to rescue the market, releasing water and cutting interest rates. In addition to monetary policies, national parliaments have also approved fiscal policies to rescue the market. Among them, the US$ 2 trillion rescue plan is the most watched by the market. Before and after the review, it has led to changes in the global market. With the announcement and the simultaneous rescue of markets by other countries, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rebounded sharply from its low level, lowering the risk aversion in the market. U.S. dollar also fell one after another last week, with the U.S. foreign exchange weighted index falling to 100 and hovering at 98. Sterling and New Zealand dollars led the overall non-U.S. rebound.  But this week the United States will soon release labor market data. It will test whether the market is out of danger. The new crown pneumonia epidemic has begun to emerge on the economic level. I believe the recent economic data will definitely weaken.   Although the focus last week was on the rescue measures, the number of first-time claims for unemployment assistance in a week announced by the United States rose tenfold on Thursday, to an alarming one million. The outbreak of the epidemic in European and American communities and the launching of home-based orders in the United States are bound to severely depress the performance of the labor market. Labor data to be released this week in the United States will also suffer. ADP and non-agricultural jobs are expected to show negative growth for the first time in nearly a decade. Last week, the market had high expectations that U.S. stocks would begin to bottom out. Under unlimited QE, the market believed that capital liquidity would be restored, but the stock market performance would eventually reflect the economic performance.  Although the tight liquidity has been eased, But not all economies will also depress the performance of the stock market. This week, we need to look at how the market digests the gradual softening of the US economy. Funds will still be attached to safe haven assets.   Gold price is different from other non-U.S. currencies due to its hedging function and the cash market's forced position. Gold price took the lead in soaring last week.  On the contrary, the U.S. dollar vomited back in the middle of last week, while the gold price did not follow suit. After the futures are settled, I believe that the pressure on the gold price to hold positions will be reduced, but the gold market will not turn around and go down immediately, and will eventually support the gold price to improve under the continuous global water rescue. The gold price has softened to 1600 and can be bought again. The current rebound in the US dollar will slightly limit the rise of the gold price. The gold price will take this opportunity to adjust its earlier sharp rise. After consolidation, it is expected to absorb the low price again and wait for a new breakthrough.  

2020-03-27

Following the passage of the emergency economic assistance plan bill by the U.S. Congress, the leaders of the Group of Twenty (G20) issued a joint statement, releasing 5 trillion U.S. dollars to deal with the epidemic and improving the market atmosphere. Risk aversion cooled and the US dollar continued to vomit below the 100 mark.  G20 leaders issued a joint statement promising to take all necessary health measures and seek to ensure sufficient funds. In order to control the epidemic situation, information will be shared in a timely and transparent manner, data on the epidemic situation will be exchanged, and manufacturing capacity will be expanded to meet the growing demand for medicines. To ensure the wide supply of drugs.  The plan sent U.S. stocks soaring, with the Dow rising more than 1,000 points and stabilizing above 20,000 points. The U.S. dollar's recent hedging function has faded as expected, with the weaker pound and New Zealand dollar gaining greater momentum for rebound. There were many important economic issues in the market yesterday. In addition to the rescue plans of the United States and the G20, the Bank of England also continued its regular meetings to keep interest rates unchanged.   As the Bank of England has already cut interest rates by 0.5% and 0.15% twice in the month, the interest rate has almost bottomed out, which can be said to be irreducible. The market has generally expected that the interest rate will not be adjusted again, but the market is more expecting the Bank of England to increase the amount of debt it can buy. It is a pity that in the end, the plan to buy bonds was only maintained at 645 billion pounds, but it was also said that more bonds would be bought when necessary to bring insurance to the market.  In addition, the number of people applying for unemployment assistance for the first time in a week announced by the United States rose tenfold. It also caused an uproar in the market, from a two-year high of 283,000 in the previous week to a further 3.283 million, far exceeding the expected 1.7 million and reaching a record high. Meanwhile, the number of continuous applications in the previous week also increased by 101,000 to 1.803 million. Although the figures are frightening, they are also accepted by the market. The United States is in isolation, with millions of people unable to work and a large number of small businesses closed down. Investors have also digested that the economic data will continue to be poor in the future and the epidemic will slowly emerge on the economic level.   The US dollar's hedging function has faded due to multi-country rescue. However, as the epidemic situation is not under immediate control, it will still disturb the market performance. Gold price also shares some hedging sentiment and supports the development of gold price at a high level. The number of confirmed cases in the United States is as high as 82,791, making it the world's largest number of cases. Without continued home quarantine, I am afraid the community outbreak problem cannot be solved. The shutdown of the mining industry has also caused a sudden break in the gold supply chain in the market. In anticipation of a decrease in gold production in the future, some merchants are in urgent need of holding positions for delivery, which has also increased the demand for real-time gold purchases. In a short period of time, it is difficult for gold prices to plummet. It is already a good opportunity to enter the market to fall back to the 1600 mark yesterday. The upper part is temporarily unable to challenge the 1650 mark. It is expected that the gold price will be adjusted at a high level. The lower part of the market will be slightly raised to 1605. It will continue to return to the original position and buy. After a period of consolidation, the reserve will rise.

2020-03-26

The US White House and Congress have reached an agreement on an emergency economic assistance plan to reduce the impact of the epidemic on the economy. The scale is expected to reach 2 trillion US dollars. Before the Senate implements the details of the plan, The market performance has been repeated, and the US stock market has been violently shaken, which has also affected the US dollar exchange rate performance.  The trend of non-U.S. currencies was also divided. The European currency rebounded for a time, but its upper support was insufficient. Commodity currencies continued to decline, with gold prices softening again on Wednesday night after rebounding sharply on Tuesday, losing the US$ 1,600 mark.  But as countries strive to restore market liquidity, Risk sentiment is believed to cool slightly, the recent hedging function of the US dollar will fade in the short term, and non-US currencies or markets can wander out of the low position and wait for a new round of direction.   The former chairman of the Federal Reserve spoke out for the economy yesterday. Bernanke said that the US economy is experiencing the middle of a sharp recession and will not last long.  He stressed that the current situation is very different from the Great Depression of the last century. Not from monetary and financial shocks, but closer to natural disasters. However, the market did not buy the bill before the Senate passed it. U.S. stocks have been under pressure again since Big bounce on Tuesday. Only before the Senate finally passed the plan did U.S. stocks gain momentum for a rebound. The market fluctuated extremely violently, reaching thousands of points back and forth. The foreign currency market also fluctuated. The trend is different, while the gold price rebounded to a high level after rising more than 100 US dollars on Tuesday.  This morning saw a minimum return of 1,597 US dollars, and once lost the 6,000 mark. The high level saw a slight selling pressure, but the overall upward trend is still expected to continue.   Gold prices have recently suspended trading or expanded the price difference due to problems with quotation providers. The reason is that the recent epidemic situation has led to the suspension of mineral production and flights. Some spot transactions have not been completed as scheduled, thus increasing the need for delivery in the futures market.  In the face of more cash transfers, dealers and quotation providers have not been able to obtain accurate quotations. This also shows that there is a huge demand for spot gold. The market is in urgent need of spot transactions and will support the gold price to improve.  Therefore, with the strength of the US dollar, the gold price is expected to remain relatively stable. Below can continue to buy in 1590 position, bargain-hunting to absorb, in countries printing money water, gold prices will continue to be supported and performance.

2020-03-23

Central banks around the world joined hands to rescue the market. Last week, central banks and governments took turns to cut interest rates and began QE. With the outbreak of the novel coronavirus epidemic in Europe and the United States, Risk sentiment is rising. Central banks dare not neglect the sharp decline in global stock markets. Many countries have cut their economic forecasts this year and next. Italy even calls the epidemic the most serious national crisis since World War II. The US dollar is now playing the role of a fund refuge.  The U.S. foreign exchange weighted index rose sharply in two weeks, reaching a peak of 103, a three-year high. Although it slightly vomited back last weekend, the upward trend has not changed. The US Congress in see you on monday vetoed the trillion-dollar rescue plan. Stock markets in the Asia-Pacific region continue to be volatile. In addition to the US dollar, we can also pay attention to another safe haven asset, the gold market. After countries have stepped up their efforts to rescue the market, we believe that the gold price can start to stabilize in the short term and restructure its upward trend.   New crown pneumonia continues to erupt in the community and the epidemic situation in Europe and the United States is not well controlled. Apart from the response of the stock market, the economic sector is also beginning to come under increasing pressure.  Morgan Stanley even released a report that said, The newly crowned pneumonia epidemic will lead to a more severe recession than previously expected in the United States. In the second quarter, the gross domestic product will shrink by a record 30.1%, the unemployment rate will rise to 12.8% on average, and consumption will decrease by 31%. The forecast is rather frightening.  The report said U.S. economic activity nearly stagnated in March. As more regions adopt social distance measures and the financial situation improves and tightens, short-term GDP growth will show relatively negative growth. At present, the S&P index of U.S. stocks trades at about 18 times earnings and the Dow is 15 times earnings. As the U.S. economy shrinks further, U.S. stocks will continue to decline next year. There is no room for optimism.   U.S. Congress failed to pass the trillion-dollar rescue plan on Monday, causing further shocks to the Asia-Pacific stock market and U.S. stock futures. The gold market has also seen some ups and downs. However, the gold market has gradually seen a stable trend during this period of U.S. dollar rise and U.S. stock decline. I believe that the early round of long positions in Jinshi and long positions in U.S. stocks have begun to close.  The gold market will begin to fluctuate again in response to market demand.  Gold prices set a bottom in the mid-term, with 1450 below becoming the key support. Although it has repeatedly rebounded above 1500 and failed to stabilize. However, as long as the market sentiment in this period starts to stabilize, this position is an ideal opportunity to absorb and can be absorbed at bargain prices.  Although the rise of the US dollar has prevented gold from rebounding, many countries also believe that there will be funds to reabsorb gold as a hedge against risks when printing money.

2020-03-20

The novel coronavirus epidemic broke out in Europe and the United States. Countries continued to take turns to rescue the market. The Bank of England cut interest rates by 0.15% yesterday.  Risk sentiment is rising. The central banks of all countries, seeing the sharp decline in the global stock market, are also prepared and dare not neglect.  Of the two-week surge in the US dollar, sterling has been the hardest hit. The market regards the US dollar as a financial haven for the epidemic, but the British government's response to the epidemic has triggered a wave of panic, with sterling being sold off. The two-week decline has exceeded 15%, and the U.S. foreign exchange weighted index has also recorded its largest eight-year rise in history.   The Bank of England also cut interest rates to 0.1% after the European Central Bank bought 750 billion euros of bonds and Trump sent money directly from the United States. This is the second emergency rate cut by the Bank of England in the past two weeks. And promised to increase the 200 billion pound debt purchase plan.  The central bank's water release this time was the third day after the new governor Bailey took office, and he immediately made a move. At present, Britain's interest rate has dropped to a record low of nearly zero. The drastic action shows that the economic impact of the epidemic is also very disastrous. With the joint rescue operations of various countries, The global stock market is also gradually returning to stability. Although the recent trend of financial markets has been like a roller coaster, the tide of closing positions and replenishing positions has begun to ebb away. What has not yet subsided is the psychological mood of investors, more than the breakdown of funds.   U.S. stocks saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average below 20,000 last night and began buying at a low level. Although the U.S. dollar is still on the rise, the rebound in the asset market has also reduced the safe-haven buying of the U.S. dollar. As a result, gold prices started to rebound from a low level.  Seeing the gold price again this afternoon and challenging above US$ 1,500, the gold price is expected to stabilize step by step and begin to regroup and rise after consolidation. The lower 1450 can be confirmed as the mid-term bottom, which can be absorbed by bargain hunting.  And after this period of US dollar rally returns, I believe there will be funds to reabsorb gold as a hedge.

2020-03-19

Countries continue to rescue the market, but the market conditions are still mixed, like in the crisis period, the trend is repeated, the market panic has not subsided, investors sell all kinds of currencies, bonds and stocks and hoard US dollars. U.S.-foreign exchange weighted index rises above 100.  Sterling fell to a low of nearly 26 years and Australian dollar hit a 17-year low. The more central banks let go, the looser monetary policies they have, but the more pressure they see on asset markets. The Federal Reserve's attempt to rescue the market has failed. The US dollar is regarded as a safe haven by the market, and Asian currencies cannot avoid being sold. In addition to implementing monetary policies, Washington has also launched wealth. Today, the European Central Bank also launched a 750 billion euro debt purchase plan. News once boosted the market. Gold also benefited from the rise to the US$ 1,500 mark, but then it tried again to reach a near two-week low. Stock markets in the Asia-Pacific region are also generally under pressure, and the worst is yet to come.   Earlier this morning, the European Central Bank announced a 750 billion euro debt purchase plan for the novel coronavirus epidemic, which will cover private and public securities. After the announcement of the new plan, it once stimulated the recovery of the euro and the weighted decline of US foreign exchange, which also supported the gold price to rise by nearly US$ 20.  The euro rose to 1.0980 but failed to break the 1.10 barrier. The price of gold also eased back to US$ 1,463.  The European Central Bank said that the purchase plan will be maintained until the end of 2020. The members of the committee are fully prepared. The scale of the asset purchase plan will be expanded, and the size and timing of the purchase will be adjusted as needed.  Market volatility remains volatile, but as rescue plans continue to emerge, The market is just waiting for the stock market to calm down, and safe-haven assets are gradually gaining support.   The market is now inclined to buy US dollars as a hedge. U.S. foreign exchange weighted through the recent high and continued to stabilize after rising above the 100 mark, which also suppressed the upward trend of gold price. However, the low buying price of gold price has already begun to be absorbed. It is believed that the chance of breaking the low again is not high, but the rise of the US dollar will hardly make the gold price rise sharply from now on. Technically, the gold price needs to be consolidated below 1500 and is expected to stabilize step by step. After the adjustment is completed, the restructuring is on the rise, and the current trend is still relatively volatile, continuing to take 1450 as the bottom and absorbing at bargain prices.

2020-03-18

The United States continues to resort to rescue the market. In addition to implementing monetary policy, Washington has also launched a fiscal policy to rescue the market. US President Trump directly sends money to US citizens, stimulated by news. Coupled with the support of U.S. stocks in buying technology before the 20,000 mark, U.S. stocks led the global stock market to rebound sharply. Gold prices also rebounded sharply from the low due to the easing of the capital chain. The short-term low has been seen, but the recent volatility is relatively large. Gold prices can only buy up at bargain prices and enter the market conservatively.  With measures taken by various countries coming out one after another, we are now waiting for the epidemic to subside. Financial market confidence will gradually return to stability and market turbulence will be reduced. There are a number of economic data released tonight in the United States. However, due to the lagging data, it is not able to reflect the situation and its insufficient importance, it is expected to have a limited impact on the immediate market response.   In addition to the tax exemption plan to be launched earlier, the United States has launched a trillion-dollar economic plan to rescue the market, directly distribute money to bank accounts of American citizens, and will give enterprises up to 10 million dollars. The US Treasury Secretary confirmed that Trump would approve a total of 300 billion US dollars in deferred tax payments for individuals up to one million US dollars. The new york District Federal Reserve also continued to maintain market stability. This week, it provided US$ 1 trillion in funds every day through buybacks to ensure that US stocks rebounded sharply with a large margin of capital flow. The U.S. dollar is also improving, but with the support of real buying at the low level in the gold market, it did not try a new low again, but rebounded sharply and stabilized the 1,500 U.S. dollar mark again.   After falling back from US$ 1700, the gold market has fallen by more than US$ 200. During the week, it saw that the 1450 mark was supported by real buying. This level is expected to become the mid-term bottom. After organizing the bottom, it will rebound step by step. Countries have been releasing water continuously recently, and the stock market has also dropped to a more critical level. Although the epidemic situation has not improved immediately, I believe it will eventually remain under control, just like the epidemic situation in China and Hong Kong. However, after the monetary policy is released, However, it will not be tightened immediately at any time. I believe there will be a honeymoon period in the market. As long as the epidemic situation starts to improve, there will be too much hot money in the market. As asset prices are pushed up, QE in various countries will also highlight the ability of gold to maintain its value. Gold prices are now rising above US$ 1,500, but the trend is still relatively volatile, continuing to bottom at 1,450, buying at bargain prices and waiting for market conditions to stabilize.