Gold market analysis

2020-03-17

The rescue could not stop. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by another 1% and New Zealand's Central Bank cut interest rates by 4.3% yesterday. Market panic surged and the stock market continued to fall. The more the market rescued, the more flustered it was. Gold prices were also affected. The trend was like a roller coaster. After a sharp rebound, it hit a low level in half a year. The market was still worried about the shortage of funds. Hot money flows out of precious metal market to replenish stocks.  The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 1% on Monday, another emergency cut after the beginning of March, with a total of 1.5% cut on both occasions. And restart the quantitative easing monetary policy, restart the printing press to save the market. U.S. President Trump even predicted that the new coronal pneumonia epidemic would plunge the U.S. economy into recession. News scattered the world's stock markets. U.S. stocks fluctuated extremely and the trend did not improve.   U.S. stocks suffered the worst decline since the financial tsunami. Apart from triggering the market suspension mechanism again, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is closer to the 20,000 mark.  Trump described the epidemic as an invisible enemy. The problem that emerged was that no one could have expected it a month ago. Now we see all kinds of such problems. The problem is very serious, really very serious. He said the epidemic might plunge the United States into recession, stressing that what is currently under consideration is how to deal with the epidemic.  Asked when the epidemic situation could be properly handled, he pointed out that it was estimated that from July to August, At this stage, it is not yet planned to implement isolation measures nationwide, but some regions and hot spots may need isolation, emphasizing that it is not yet time to implement relevant policies. In addition to the United States, central banks around the world have also adopted monetary policies. Unfortunately, financial markets are still weak in confidence and U.S. stocks continue to plummet. Apart from benefiting from a sharp rise in the early opening of the market, gold prices have tumbled after reaching European markets.   After the gold price jumped to a steep level yesterday, as the stock market continued to fall, the gold price was dragged back to soft, and the impact of shrinking industrial uses such as silver was even worse. Silver lost US$ 13 and gold price also fell below the 1500 mark.  After entering the US market, gold prices rebounded sharply after reaching a minimum of 1,450 US dollars. At this stage, Although the global stock market slump has dragged down the capital crisis and many financial institutions are believed to need to make up their positions and cut their positions, the global central bank's joint efforts to print silver paper will begin to bring long-term support to gold. 1450 More Physical Buying to Support Gold Prices;  Technically, the short-term volatility of gold prices continues, but it is no longer appropriate to sell short at low prices. Instead, we can seize the opportunity to enter the market at low prices. Ready to bargain for goods, as long as the stock market stabilizes, funds will begin to seek rescue and hedge and flow into the gold market.

2020-03-16

Last week, central banks of various countries continued to rescue the market. In response to novel coronavirus's ravages on Europe and the United States, various countries felt that there was no risk in their communities and closed their cities one after another, causing an unprecedented crisis in financial markets. The stock market fell one after another to prevent the funds from breaking. G7 joined hands to cut interest rates to rescue the market and launched a new round of QE to rescue the market. Last Friday, U.S. stocks rebounded sharply from their lows. However, it still recorded the smallest single-week decline in recent years.  The Federal Reserve slashed interest rates by 1% early Monday morning, even before markets in the Asia-Pacific region opened. However, on the contrary, the relevant actions have caused panic in the market. U.S. stock futures have fallen and oil prices have plunged by more than 6%. Gold prices and Japanese yen have soared, but have since retreated again.  The epidemic crisis continues to plague market sentiment. The short-term fluctuations in financial markets have expanded, and risks need to be carefully handled before entering the market.   The Federal Reserve said that the epidemic has damaged the society and economy of many countries, including the United States, and the global financial environment has been significantly affected. The reduction in interest rates will help support the U.S. economy, stabilize the job market, While maintaining the inflation target, the Federal Reserve announced a large-scale quantitative monetary easing plan of 700 billion US dollars, including the repurchase of at least 500 billion US dollars of government bonds within a few months. Increase holdings to 200 billion US dollars in mortgage backed securities.  The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by half a percentage point only at the beginning of the month. This time, it will cut interest rates by another percentage point in less than two weeks outside the regular meeting. After the financial tsunami in 2008, the interest rate policy was set to zero again.   Although interest rate cuts will help reduce the cost of holding gold for investors and QE will also highlight the ability of gold to preserve its value, due to the decline in the global market, capital was once tight, resulting in a considerable impact on hot money flowing into the gold market. At present, the stock market must begin to stabilize in order to ease the crisis in the asset market. Gold prices rebounded sharply to US$ 1,575 with interest rate cuts across the world after narrowly keeping the psychological barrier of 1,500 last week. The trend is rather volatile. Gold still has the opportunity to try again last week's low price. However, due to the deep correction, and with the policies of various countries to rescue the market, it is no longer appropriate to sell short the low price of gold. On the contrary, we can seize the opportunity to enter the market at a low price and be prepared to bargain for goods. Under the conditions of low interest rates and the introduction of silver paper from various countries, once the stock market stabilizes, funds will begin to seek rescue and hedge and flow into the gold market. However, short-term market conditions will be more volatile and stop losses must be strictly observed.

2020-03-13

Yesterday, the European Central Bank discussed the interest rate and the world paid attention to the G7 joint rescue of the market. Unfortunately, although the European Central Bank increased water release, the interest rate remained unchanged, disappointing the market. Global stock markets tumbled again, triggering a crisis of confidence. The new york Federal Reserve also issued a new round of QE to start. However, the financial market closed down in shock at the end of the day. Gold also hit a two-week low, losing the US$ 1,600 mark and entering a technical bear market like the stock market.  I saw the Asia-Pacific market this morning, and the panic in the market eased slightly. After such a big drop, it is advisable to wait patiently for the market conditions to calm down and then bring in flat goods. There are several economic data to be released in the United States tonight, but the key point is whether the market can stabilize and market confidence will take time to recover.   The European Central Bank unexpectedly kept interest rates unchanged. Central Bank President Lagarde told reporters that the epidemic poses a major downward risk to the economy and inflation may drop significantly in the coming months. We will be ready to adjust all policy tools when necessary. We also mentioned that the spread of the epidemic will affect growth prospects and trigger market fluctuations. We called on all governments to take timely actions. Bold and coordinated fiscal measures are needed to deal with it.  The bank also released the latest economic forecast, which was cut from 1.1% to 0.8%, and the growth rate next year was cut from 1.4% to 1.3%. Growth in 2022 will remain at 1.4%.  Inflation forecasts remain unchanged. Despite efforts to rescue the market, market confidence has not recovered. European and American stock markets continue to plunge. U.S. stocks have once again triggered a break-up system. The market crisis has also affected the gold market.   Gold lost the $1,600 mark last night, a two-week low.  The stock market plummeted and investors needed to sell gold to ease the flow of capital.  As a traditional hedge asset, Gold prices have fallen sharply for four days in a row. Most institutional investors have been asked to collect deposits, which has led to the continuous emergence of profit-taking opportunities. Investors have also obviously cashed in from the gold market to fill other positions. Gold prices saw a minimum of 1,551 US dollars this morning before a rebound momentum emerged.  However, as the global financial market is still unstable, the gold price may fluctuate until the end of the quarter. After the quarter is over for a number of financial products, Only in this way can we really begin to gasp for breath, but more importantly, market confidence needs to be restored before we can see that the gold market really reflects its value. Under the new QE policy, the gold market will have a period of performance in the future, and we need to wait patiently for a good opportunity of low absorption.

2020-03-12

The Bank of England suddenly cut interest rates by half a percentage point. All members unanimously agreed to cut interest rates by half a percentage point. Sterling against the US dollar and other major currencies came under pressure. The global low-interest environment once supported gold prices to hit a high level in 1670 days. However, U.S. stocks collapsed again, tightening market funds and dragging gold prices to a new low in the week.  Today, the European Central Bank is expected to follow the G7 interest rate cut and officially launch the global low-interest era. In the face of novel coronavirus, countries will continue to make moves, the United States will issue a European ban, the World Health Organization will also characterize the new crown as a global pandemic, and financial markets will continue to suffer. Although the gold price adjustment is almost complete, it is difficult to regain its upward trend in the short term and will make more consolidation in the new trading range.   Earlier in Europe yesterday, the Bank of England slashed interest rates by 0.5% to save the market in response to the severe epidemic of New Crown Pneumonia in economic activities. The target interest rate was reduced from 0.75% to 0.25%. After the news was released, sterling prices plunged by more than 0.6%. The central bank statement pointed out that the authorities held a special meeting on Wednesday and officials unanimously agreed to cut interest rates by half a percentage point. The main reason was that the epidemic had caused the prices of risky assets and commodities to drop sharply. As the interest rate on debt also fell to a record low, the economic prospects of Britain and the world deteriorated rapidly.  I believe that with the urgent interest rate cut, the budget will also increase the scale of bond issuance. The European Central Bank will do the same tonight. It is expected to cut interest on savings and increase the scale of bond issuance. The global zero interest era will come, but the gold market will not benefit immediately.   Although the low-interest environment has reduced the cost of holding gold for investors, due to the sluggish stock market, large funds have been dragged down to need funds to window-dress and move funds from the precious metal market to the stock market to replenish their positions, resulting in the decline of gold price. Last night, the market originally expected US President Trump to introduce measures to rescue the market, but unfortunately his speech was silent and US stocks plummeted, which also led to another weekly low in gold prices. In addition, after news of the European Limit Order came out, Global stock markets continued to panic this morning, with gold approaching US$ 1,630. Short-term gold prices failed to reverse their weakness. Investors needed more time to recover after the gold market was consolidated.

2020-03-11

Gold prices adjusted as scheduled yesterday. The market expected Washington to rescue the market. U.S. stocks surged to close higher after repeated fluctuations. Gold prices also returned to their low levels. After hitting 1700 on Monday, Last night, the lowest return was 1,642 US dollars, with a correction of nearly 60 US dollars. The gold price adjustment has almost been completed. After consolidation, it is expected to regroup and rise.  U.S. to Announce CPI Consumer Price Index Tonight, Global Joint Rescue, Market Still Expects Fed's Interest Rate to Fall Further, Inflation Data Will Have Important Impact on Fed's Decision. If US Inflation Soars, It may also hinder the decision to cut interest rates. Market conditions must also wait for the stock market to return to calm and risk sentiment to cool before hot money can start again and make plans.   The precious metal market was still unstable in the early part of yesterday. After the opening of the US market, the gold price gradually declined.  After the U.S. stock market opened, the trend has been repeated. Investors expected US President Trump to launch a stimulus policy to deal with the epidemic in novel coronavirus. US stocks rebounded sharply in the early period, but after rising 601 points, their performance fell repeatedly. However, efforts were made again in the latter part of the day to reach the highest closing price in the whole day. Foreign media quoted officials as saying that Trump suggested to Republican congressmen to reduce the internal salaries tax to zero this year. In addition, it also refers to the White House's plan to provide federal assistance to the US shale gas industry to reduce the impact of Russia's and Russia's oil price hikes.   The rescue measures and rumors not only affected the performance of U.S. stocks, but also caused a sudden change in gold price. U.S. stocks surged in the afternoon, once pushing the gold price back to 1,642 U.S. dollars. The gold price as a whole has still not completely deviated from the adjustment trend. However, it is believed that the low level is expected to start to consolidate. There are continued buying around 1650 to support the rebound. However, it is necessary to be careful not to stabilize above 1665. It is difficult to extend the rebound space. Gold prices can be absorbed at bargain prices. However, this level is only limited to the struggle to rise and fall, and can only be improved after the consolidation is completed.

2020-03-10

The oil group talks broke down, the market was worried about the possibility of price cuts, the financial market was deeply affected, US stocks plunged 2,000 points and triggered a stop mechanism, with the US dollar falling 1%. Oil prices have dropped more than 20%, financial markets are in turmoil, and funds have been diverted to the gold market for safe haven, hitting a seven-year high and breaking the US$ 1,700 mark. Unfortunately, the upward trend has not been sustained. The short-term gold price performance is weak, and there is a possibility of further adjustment and another round of upward trend. However, the short-term trend of the US dollar is not optimistic.   The price war after the breakdown of the oil-producing countries' production cut talks, coupled with the outbreak of the new crown pneumonia in the world, has further shaken off the world's stock market, which had been hit hard previously. U.S. stocks fell more than 7% as soon as they opened, triggering a market shutdown mechanism that would take 15 minutes to resume trading. After the resumption of trading, there was still no sign of calm in the market. After that, the market went down repeatedly, dropping 2158 points at most. In the end, it closed at 23581, the biggest one-day decline in points and the biggest decline since October 2008 in percentage terms. U.S. stocks plummeted and global stock markets also saw setbacks. The market may be said to have changed from a state of epidemic madness to a state of despair. It is in urgent need of quick adjustment. The global stock market has lost about US$ 7 trillion in market value in just two weeks. Money supply in the market has led to a very short supply. Investors are in urgent need of the central bank to rescue the market. Although the price of gold rose above US$ 1,700 in the early period, there was no buying above it. In addition to the sharp decline in the stock market, funds also need to return to the stock market to replenish their positions from the gold market. Gold prices may return further.   Technically, after the gold price lost its 1660 level, it has the opportunity to further test its low position of 1642 last week. Although non-agricultural sectors performed well last week, the gold price repeatedly vomited back and forth, with a trumpet-shaped trend. The trend of anti-development must be narrowed before it can develop smoothly.  At this stage, we must wait patiently until the market starts to calm down, waiting for the golden opportunity of low absorption.  

2020-03-09

In response to the global ravages in novel coronavirus, the market was worried about the outbreak of the community epidemic, which would drag down the global economic growth and eventually forced the G7 to intervene in the market together. To provide sufficient liquidity for the market, central banks of various countries started a wave of interest rate cuts. Australia, the Federal Reserve and Canada successively cut interest rates last week. This week they went to the European Central Bank to discuss interest rates. I believe it will also follow the trend of lowering the interest rate for savings. The global interest rate fell and gold price rose as scheduled. On Monday morning, it jumped to 1700, a seven-year high. On the other hand, the oil group talks broke down, Saudi Arabia lowered the prices of a number of refined oil products, the oil price dropped by more than 20%, and the market sentiment was further aroused. The global stock market continued to decline, and funds were seeking a way out. Turn to the safe-haven market to avoid risks. Gold price and Japanese yen are still in good demand.   Investors are worried that the epidemic will affect the economic downturn and short-term industrial demand will drop, which has continued to put pressure on oil prices. The oil group led by the sand is even quarrelling with Russia. OPEC failed to reach a consensus on a cut in output. Sandland slashed the prices of major petroleum products. The market was also worried about the ensuing price war. new york and Brandt oil fell more than 20% on Monday. Panic caused the global market to fall even further. Dow Jones futures fell more than 1,000 points on Monday morning, unchanged from the previous two weeks of continuous decline.  Money Seeks Shelter, Gold Price Rushes to Thousand Seven Pass, The Japanese yen also rose to a 16-year high of US$ 101.   The global financial market was unstable and the G7 was forced to take action. Following the 2008 financial tsunami, the G7 financial leaders took another joint action to rescue the market. They held a conference call last week to ensure sufficient liquidity in the market. It also shows that the interest rate is a feasible measure to support the market.  The Australian Central Bank, the Federal Reserve and Canada also lowered their interest rates one after another. The Federal Reserve even cut interest rates by half a percentage point ahead of the mid-month meeting. Although the recent economic data of the United States are not weak, they do not help the US dollar to rise. The stock market is also limited to rebound and has not changed its weakness.  See U.S. Labor Department Data Ideal Last Friday, Unemployment rate fell to a 50-year low, non-agricultural activities also rose to 270,000 person-times. Gold prices briefly shook to 1640, but then saw the dollar weaken again, hitting a new intraday high last Friday. On Monday, it broke through the 1700 mark to reach a seven-year high.  Looking ahead, thanks to the low-interest environment around the world, the gold price has not changed greatly. This week, the European Central Bank discussed interest rates and expected to lower the savings rate. The cost of holding gold by investors has dropped. After the gold price struggles at the 1700 mark, it will rise to a new high. Technically, gold price should only be bought at the same time and cannot be estimated at the top of the market.

2020-03-06

Worried about further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, the US dollar continued to fall last night, with the US-foreign exchange weighted index hitting a nearly two-month low of 96.47 and non-US goods rising across the board. The U.S. dollar is in a precarious situation. After falling more than 1% last week, the U.S. dollar has the chance to record another one-week decline in two years. This week's accumulation has also fallen by more than 1.5%. On the one hand, it has fallen close to the important support 100-balance moving average. Under the pressure of the US dollar, the gold price has also rapidly tested to a high level in the year. This morning I saw a high of 1,681 US dollars. I was under pressure from beginning to end, but I did not change my direction.  The United States will release Labor Department data tonight. New jobs in non-agricultural sectors will be the focus of the week. Since the data is not expected to be weak, if gold prices can be suppressed, they can buy at bargain prices and wait to break the year's high.   Since the Federal Reserve suddenly cut interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point on Tuesday, the US-foreign exchange weighted index has been bleeding profusely and financial markets have been in turmoil.  Although the U.S. cut interest rates can solve the problem of money shortage for the immediate market, But at the same time, it also hit the rise of the strong US dollar. Other non-US currencies gained momentum. In addition, novel coronavirus also wreaked havoc in the United States and the epidemic situation has subsided. The US dollar plunged even more yesterday. It is the biggest one-day decline since January 9, 2019.  Although the economic data recently released by the United States are mostly ideal, especially labor data, For example, ADP's employment figures and the number of first-time applications for unemployment assistance last week were better than expected, but did not help the US dollar to rebound. Gold continued to break through late last night.   Gold prices hit a near-weekly high in Asian markets and then retreated. As the US will announce new non-agricultural jobs tonight, the market is paying more attention to them, so investors are wary of investing in high prices. There has been no further push-up breakthrough.  It is expected that the unemployment rate announced tonight in the United States will remain at 3.6, while the number of new non-agricultural jobs will drop slightly to 17.5. If the figure is released, it will represent more than 200,000 people. But better than expected, it will bring immediate market support to the US dollar. However, the rise of gold price this week is a foregone conclusion. If gold price returns again, it may be a better buying position. Investors can take three steps. Take a step back, buy back and wait for next week's breakthrough.

2020-03-05

After the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by half a percentage point in an emergency, the economic data released by the United States showed good performance yesterday, supporting the improvement of the atmosphere in the major markets and the sharp rebound of U.S. stocks. The U.S. dollar also recovered slightly, while gold prices rallied at a high level, but the volatility narrowed.  The Bank of Canada also followed suit with a half percent cut. After a round of rescue, market tensions eased slightly. However, the driving force for economic growth will inevitably remain difficult. In the future, corporate profits will definitely be affected, while the low-interest environment is expected to support the development of the precious metal market.   On the night of the Federal Reserve's emergency interest rate cut, the Dow Jones Industrial Average continued to drop sharply, but the mood in the Asia-Pacific region improved yesterday.  In the evening, the economic data released by the United States did well. ADP announced 183,000 person-times in the United States, lower than the previous 291,000, but higher than the expected 170,000.  The ISM non-manufacturing PMI also reported a high of 57.3 in February. It is higher than the expected 54.9 and the previous 55.5, above the 50-rise/fall dividing line, indicating that the non-manufacturing industry is in an expansion stage.  After the U.S. stock market opened, it went up again and again. It has also given support to the US dollar. The European currency and other currencies have dropped slightly, and the rise in gold prices has also been limited.   Canada's central bank followed the U.S. interest rate cut by half a percentage point and once again supported the atmosphere of the big market. Gold prices benefited from the global low-interest environment and surged. Unfortunately, when it rose to around 1648, it began to be unable to do so again. There is still a certain pressure above 1650, and it will take time for consolidation to take place again.  Technically, since the outbreak of the epidemic, the gold price has turned back due to the shortage of funds in the market and rebounded at a high speed at a low level. A large triangle has been formed, i.e. the market will run in the big triangle, narrow down and tidy up, and the amplitude may drop first, which is more suitable for short-term speculation. There are many economic data in the United States tonight, among which durable goods orders and the number of people applying for unemployment for the first time in a week will have an impact on the immediate market, but there will be little change in the future. As the ADP number last night was better than expected, the market also expects that tomorrow night's non-farm will bring surprises to the market. With early digestion, U.S. stocks and U.S. dollars are still expected to perform well tonight. However, if the gold price softens to around 1630, it can also buy at bargain prices, and the medium and long term is still expected to expand in a low-interest environment.

2020-03-04

The G7 financial leaders held a conference call last night to discuss measures to rescue the market. The statement after the meeting said that they would help maintain economic stability at an appropriate time. Later on, The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by half a percentage point.  After the G7 conference call, the market initially stated that there was no special measure. However, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates suddenly after the US stock market opened. In addition, with drastic measures, the financial market experienced severe shocks, with gold prices soaring by more than US$ 50 and reaching 1650 this morning. Central banks around the world have further tightened their monetary policies. It will help the capital flow into the gold market and support the gold price to reach a new high.   The G7 rarely holds teleconferences. In response to the downward risks brought by novel coronavirus to the economy, the financial leaders held a joint meeting for more than half an hour at 7 pm.  After the meeting, G7 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Declare G7 Group is Ready to Take Action at Necessary Moments, Including Financial Instruments, The Oral Statement Remains at Export Level, The market did not respond much.  After the US stock market opened, the stock market continued to decline. The Federal Reserve eventually cut interest rates by half a percentage point. Powell pointed out that the cut was aimed at helping the US economy to remain strong in the crisis. At present, employment growth is stable, salary growth continues to maintain, and the virus and countermeasures will drag down economic activities for a certain period of time.  In the future, we will continue to take actions to keep the economy strong and use tools and actions appropriately to support the economy. U.S. President also responded immediately after cutting interest rates. Trump pointed out that the Federal Reserve must be looser and more important is to catch up with other countries and competitors. The United States is in an unfair competitive environment. It is unfair to the United States. This is finally the time for the Federal Reserve to take the lead and let loose and cut interest rates more aggressively.  Trump seems to want the Federal Reserve to do more. Unfortunately, the Fed has little room to cut interest rates, and U.S. stocks have retreated again in the session.   The low interest rate in the market is believed to last for some time. Following the moves of Australia and the United States, it is Canada's turn to discuss the interest rate tonight. I believe it will also cut interest rates in advance to maintain the liquidity of the market. And tonight there are ADP jobs in the United States, commonly known as small non-agricultural jobs. In addition, the Federal Reserve will also issue a brown book in the middle of the night. We should also pay attention to the fact that gold prices have maintained a strong trend after a sharp decline in interest rates. However, the fluctuation has started to expand again, and it is advisable to wait for a low price before buying. The market outlook will push up step by step, keeping it above US$ 1600.

2020-03-03

After the U.S. stock market collapsed last week, the market highly expected the Global Central Bank to rescue the market and the economy. The Bank of Japan took the lead. Many big banks also expected the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by half a percentage point soon. Moreover, before the interest rate meeting on the 17th, some actions may have been taken. Market tensions eased, US stocks rebounded by more than 1,000 points and gold prices stabilized at a low level. After holding a regular meeting this morning, the Australian Central Bank also announced a 25 basis point cut in interest rates and declared that it was ready to further expand its monetary policy. The Global Central Bank joined hands to rescue the market. It is certain to increase the size of the current loose currency in the world, and the medium and long term can stimulate the gold price to stabilize.   The U.S.-foreign exchange weighted index continued to decline in response to the Federal Reserve's rescue policy. Gold prices experienced a big shock early yesterday and then softened after a high. However, as the market conditions stabilized, Gold price volatility begins to narrow and consolidate.  U.S. President Trump again posted on social media, criticizing the Fed's slow response.  He pointed out that President Powell and the Federal Reserve had been slow to respond. Germany and other countries are injecting funds and other central banks are making more progress.  To make the right decision, the United States should keep interest rates to a minimum.  However, the interest rate has not been lowered to the lowest level. The United States is at a disadvantage. The United States should lead the world, not follow everyone.  The market hopes that the Federal Reserve will be forced to rescue the market. U.S. stocks rebounded by more than 1,000 points and once suppressed the gold price from falling to its intraday low.   With the easing of market sentiment, the trend of the gold market, which was dragged down and weakened last week, will also start to stabilize and the volatility of the gold price will begin to narrow.  Gold prices are generally between 1590 and 1600 for consolidation. After one more period of vomiting, it is expected to benefit from the low-interest environment around the world and return to good.  There are no important economic data to be released in the United States tonight, but the news of the rescue and G7 financial leaders may be released after the conference call. Exports in succession will have an immediate response to the current market situation and need to develop more closely to the market situation.

2020-03-02

上週市場人心惶惶，美股創近自金融海嘯以來，最大單週跌幅， 美股及期權合約等急需補倉，導致市場資金短拙，資金亦從黃金市場撤離，因此見金市與股市同步下挫。 但隨著市場繼續經週六日休息後，情緒稍為緩和，而且市場已高度預期環球開始救市， 上週美聯儲主席更開腔表示會適度時候，美聯儲會出手，市場已相信今年第一季美國將減息達半厘， 美元遭到拋售回軟，在美股回穩後，市場恐慌指數，非美貨幣可望重新展開升幅。   新冠肺炎病毒肆虐全球，多國相繼續出現爆發社區傳染風險， 美股自高位回落已逾百份之十，隨著美股暴瀉，終逼至美聯儲需出手救市。 在上週前，原先見美國勞工市場理想，加上近期經濟數據都有不俗表現， 市場只預期美聯儲最快於年底12月才有減息空間，並且有縮債計劃，刺激美匯加權指數一度迫近100大關； 但上週美股暴瀉四千點後，美聯儲終被迫出手，多位美聯儲理事先後出口術表示需要時會出手， 雖然他們多次想淡化疫情對經濟表現，但面對美股不斷爆倉，市場情緒過度惡劣下，美聯儲在本月18日將勢必出手。   不單美聯儲需出手救市，週一見日本央行亦開始表示放水救市，日本央行表示疫情已開始影響日本經濟表現， 日本央行率先出手，緊接是明日議息的澳洲央行，各國開始因應疫情影響而救市，低息環境將持為金市帶來支持。 市場雖然因美股暴挫而出現資金緊拙，但隨著救市政策出爐，市場恐慌情緒將漸平和，但低息環境則支持金價向好他。   本週美國公佈的勞工數據原為全週重點，但由於美聯儲息口預期突變，週中公佈的褐皮書亦有相當重要影響。 褐皮書為美聯儲息口取向的重要啟示錄，在本月議息前，此褐皮書定會為美聯儲息口帶來預示作用， 預期公佈後，將會確認本月的息口政策，降息半厘或四份一厘，將會左右美元及金市表現。 金價上週急挫至1562水平未必能重見，1600水平會出現一段好淡爭持，但方向上，傾向見底反彈，因此策略亦以回位買入為主。

2020-02-28

U.S. stocks, which fell for a seventh straight session and are on track for their worst week since the financial crisis, are set to take a beating tonight as markets look for help. However, as the U.S. stock market fell too fast, fund institutions and even retail investors needed to cover their short positions for the stock market, which led to the unwinding of profits from the gold market and the repatriation of funds to the stock market, thus dragging down the performance of the gold market. Has gradually reflected in the long - term market opportunities, can begin to prepare for the gold city center line strategy.   With the outbreak of pneumonia, the fear index rose sharply, the us debt yield rose one after another, the us Treasury and the us dollar came under pressure, and non-us currencies generally rose yesterday, with the euro back above 1.10, but the gold market was only stable. Gold had risen earlier in the day, peaking at $1,660 in the us, but fell sharply as us stocks continued their correction, with the dow falling 10 per cent for seven consecutive sessions. The panic index shot up to 15%, the market was in a mess, and money was scarce. There was no room to flee to the safe haven. Gold fell further today to $1,626, close to a weekly low.   The fed is under increasing pressure to cut rates. With a major stock market correction on Wall Street and a widespread belief that stocks can't hit new highs without heading lower, traders mostly see a higher likelihood of a fed rate cut. It has even begun to expect the fed to cut rates as early as march. Latest interest rate futures show a 68% chance of a 25 basis point cut in March and a 50% chance of a cut in April, The probability of two rate cuts before June is even higher at 74%. The consensus is that the United States needs to act, but until that happens, U.S. stocks will remain bearish, which could sway other markets. There are a number of U.S. economic data releases tonight, among which the price index and Michigan root consumer sentiment index are more important. The data is expected to be good, which should provide support for the dollar. Gold is down about 5% from its high, If we lose 1626 again, we may fall back to 1611. However, this level also has a median absorption value. After the U.S. stock market starts to recover, it is believed that with the support of global low interest rates, There is still hope that gold prices will start to stabilize and resume their rally, allowing investors to wait until the correction is complete before jumping into the market again.

2020-02-27

After falling to $1,624 in the morning, European and Asian markets rebounded at a high speed to $1,654, hoping that US President Donald trump would propose measures to rescue the market. Bullish expectations in the middle of the European market helped push gold back to soft and low and back to $1,624, but selling pressure failed to push gold any further, forming a double-bottom. Back to the top; In a speech this morning, trump again expressed his dissatisfaction with the fed's interest rate and the impact of the outbreak on economic growth, raising the possibility that global could further cut interest rates or bail out the market. Capital will continue to flow into the precious metals market. Yesterday's moves were volatile, but the tone was broadly the same, with continued fears about the outbreak and hopes that the federal reserve would cut interest rates sooner rather than later.   Janet yellen, the former chair of the federal reserve, told an audience of the us economy and the 2020 election that the new coronary pneumonia had spread widely in Europe in the past week and she expected it to have a profound impact in Europe, It could tip the U.S. economy into recession, but she said the outlook for the U.S. economy was good, so the outbreak was unlikely to have a very serious impact on the country. She added that markets are starting to expect a lot of support from the fed, But with the exception of the federal reserve, interest rates in most developed countries are already low, and in America they are only slightly higher than elsewhere. Some expect gold to hit $1,800 in the next three months.   After a sharp rebound last night, the U.S. stock market was sluggish. After a sharp rise of 461 points, it still had to give up 123 points. Looking forward to trump will act to rescue the market, the us market has seen a substantial early build, But no action has been taken. The vice President of the fed also said it was too early to assess the risk to the economy. Data on U.S. economic activity this week, such as weekly jobless claims and existing home sales, will not be important enough tonight. Can be adjusted, waiting for the opportunity to absorb.

2020-02-26

After falling more than 1,000 points on Monday, U.S. stocks fell 800 points last night, dropping 5.9 percent over the next two days, the biggest two-day cumulative point loss on record. But the dollar also fell in tandem with the gold market, which failed to regain track after a one-day turn on Monday and a series of rallies yesterday. During the U.S. market's closing session, the dollar again tried the all-day low, dropping nearly $20 in 10 minutes. Early in the morning session as low as $1625, then rebound, the overall tone of gold is not out of the adjustment trend, the high has fallen some distance, selling pressure will slowly reduce, re-low, can start to absorb the low, is expected to start looking for bottom stability.   Following the previous night's stock market plunge, the European and Asian markets also saw a very bad atmosphere of siege yesterday morning, in addition to Japan, South Korea and Italy have been worried about a sense of community, the market also worried about the outbreak of the Middle East, the us secretary of state even admitted, In the Middle East, there are cases of concealment epidemic, investors worry about the risk of economic recession, the stock market fell across the board; Despite safe-haven demand, gold's multiple rallies have failed to regain track. After hitting a seven-year high on Monday, Profit unwinding plate has hit the gold market decline, the European market rebound to $1,658 again see pressure, although the expansion of volatility, but the trend is only limited to step by step.   On Wall Street, gold has been unable to regain its session high, with weak U.S. manufacturing data and consumer confidence data leading to further losses on Wall Street in the afternoon. In addition to because the gold price has been up for a while, the fund by the impact of the U.S. stock market crash, the need for capital withdrawal market to cover short positions, so cut meat from the gold mayor warehouse, fund flow back to the stock market, so see the stock market and gold market yesterday appeared under the same time now. Market volatility will begin to narrow after the week's severe market volatility. Gold will not immediately out of the adjustment pattern, the upper part of the more difficult to immediately return to the 1650 above, close to the position can be short term, However, the low level of 1625 in the early hours of this morning is also very attractive in the medium to long term. As long as financial markets start to stabilize, funds will continue to absorb gold. Markets are also starting to price in the fed's early rate cut to June on hopes that it will support gold prices in the medium to long run until the correction is complete, allowing gold to be reabsorbed in the middle.

2020-02-25

Global stock markets tumbled on Monday as global risk sentiment rose, with several countries losing ground and a new outbreak of the coronavirus threatening to undermine global economic growth. Gold also hit its highest level since January 2013. However, the market was so depressed that the price of gold pared the day's gains at the end of the day following the emergence of profit liquidation, and fell to 1643 this morning before rebounding. Markets continue to be buffeted by the news of the outbreak, and volatility is starting to widen. After a steep drop of more than 1,000 points yesterday, there was a rebound in demand for correction, but there was still no optimism.   As soon as the market opened yesterday, the gold price rose sharply. Outbreaks in Japan, South Korea and Italy have led to a sharp increase in the number of infected people. The market is worried that economic growth will be a drag, capital into the precious metals market safety; The price of gold rose through the 1650 and 1670 levels to a seven-year high of $1,689 in Europe, After the period gradually back soft. As investors continued to worry about the economy after the market opened, the dow Jones industrial average extended its losses after opening 590 points lower. It eventually fell more than 1,000 points, with the s&p and nasdaq each falling more than 3 percent.   After surging to a new seven-year high, the gold market was hit by an unwinding of profits, falling as low as $1,642 this morning despite little change in market fundamentals. But the gold market technical trend adjustment, will be the first consolidation to break through again up, on the short term, the gold market after a greater opportunity to back up, first try low, to make up. There are a number of U.S. economic data releases tonight that are not as important as they need to be. Recent signs of stabilization in the manufacturing sector could support the dollar if the data is done well. And the gold market can wait to back up, then bargain hunting.

2020-02-24

Markets were surging last week, the dollar at best, gold 飊 rise, the market for a new type of coronavirus to worry again, U.S. stocks turned down over the weekend, The outbreak of community infection in Japan and South Korea, the super infector and the passengers on the mishandled cruise ship, all caused a sharp increase in the number of infected people in Japan and South Korea. The gold market, which surged 3 percent last week, jumped to a peak of 1,680 on Monday, the highest since February 2013, as Banks ratcheted up the price's long-term performance and the rally is expected to continue. The weighted index rose last week to 99.91, its highest level since April 2017, on fears about the impact of the new coronavirus.   Economies around the world are bound to suffer, but recent strong U.S. economic data and the continued absence of a recovery in other economies have seen the dollar perform well and the euro slip through the 1.08 mark. Sterling also traded below 1.3, while the yen posted its biggest two-day drop in recent memory last week. With signs of stabilization in U.S. manufacturing and continued strength in the labor market, the dollar is still on track to break through the psychological 100 mark despite a correction late Friday. On the other hand, despite the dollar's strength, the market is more focused on gold as a haven. Gold got a big boost from low global interest rates, and the fed's rate-setting record last week, The fed will be watching closely for the impact of the new coronavirus on the economy, and markets will be looking to the European central bank, And the people's bank of China will increase monetary policy to rescue the market, gold prices in addition to play a hedge function, also become investors hedging tool. With the exception of a slight correction on Monday, when it broke through 1650, Up to 1680 before a little rest, rising wave after wave. The rise in gold prices is still only the beginning of a surge in gold prices.   Economic data this week, the market will continue to be affected by the pneumonia outbreak sentiment, under the general pressure on the stock market, the gold market is also expected to be supported in the short term. Several big Banks have upgraded their forecasts for the year, It is widely expected that the gold market will continue to outperform the broader market with a 10 percent increase. However, as the rally is also quite rapid, gold prices will move back and forth more rapidly.

2020-02-21

The market duly pulled off a big rally, with the U.S. dollar heading for the black, the Japanese yen tumbling and the Australian dollar falling to an 11-year low, but gold was trading in the opposite direction. Gold continued to challenge new highs as it hit a seven-year high and breached the 1620 mark. Trend more breakthroughs, still as expected walk, investors long and short lines are appropriate, In the right direction, we will be able to continue to ride the wealth through train, profitable.   The weighted index of meihui appeared # 3 white samurai, rising for the third consecutive day, and the index was 99.91, the highest since April 2017. The risk of recession continued to weigh on the yen, The dollar also posted its biggest two-day gain against the yen since September 17. The Australian dollar also fell to an 11-year low against the greenback. But gold climbed to a seven-year high on safe-haven demand, Gold last night hit a new high of $1,623.7, its highest since February 15, 2013, and is still hovering near that high this morning. Market ethos, opportunities everywhere.   Stock markets have reacted to concerns about the impact of a new coronavirus on the performance of major companies, despite a decline in U.S. stocks, but recent strong U.S. economic data, Other economies, by contrast, have not seen a strong recovery, supporting the dollar. The U.S. manufacturing sector showed signs of stabilizing, and federal reserve vice chairman larry clarida on Thursday issued an upbeat economic outlook, He noted that the U.S. economy showed no signs of losing momentum, and that he was not overly alarmed by the possibility that the outbreak could change the fed's interest-rate policy. Despite a brief reaction to the outbreak, the dollar index has been strong, the U.S. economy is on solid footing, the dollar is on track to break the psychological 100-mark, and non-u.s. currencies will remain under general pressure.   But despite a stronger dollar, enthusiasm for gold has not waned. Supported by low global interest rates, gold's medium-term rally trend will not change. Even after missing the fed's chance to cut rates last year, But last year's rise was only the beginning of a surge in gold prices, which broke through the psychological $1,600 barrier just after the start of 2020. These two nights to see the high gold price will make a proper correction, but immediately before the close to continue to hit the high, and continue to have buying support trend, investors can continue to advance three steps, step back form, Buy, until the emergence of significant pressure adjustment, the profit will be rich.

2020-02-20

The dollar continued to strengthen, the yen tumbled more than 100 points to a near nine-month low, and the euro weakened across the board. Gold prices rose above their high of 1611 at the start of the year to a new seven-year high. Despite the good performance of the us dollar and us stocks, gold prices will continue to challenge the high in the future. The early rally in the gold price has been repeated, and after stabilizing at 1600, the gold price has tested its early 1611 high. But the inability to break through, the market is looking forward to China to rescue the market, resulting in a greater shock to the market. The market is looking forward to the central government to save the market, early in the dow Jones industrial average futures rose, the dollar is stable, gold is also positive. This morning, the national interbank lending center authorized by the people's bank of China announced that The 1-year market quoted interest rate for loans is 4.05%, with A monthly decrease of 10 points. For more than 5 years, it is 4.75%, with A monthly decrease of 5 points, stimulating the a-share market to rise.   After reaching 1611 earlier in the day, gold failed to rise further and began to pull back. In the evening, gold experienced a period of softening and the monthly PPI rate in the us rose by the largest amount since March 2019. Gold fell back to $1,602 before the fed's rate-setting record for the previous month. Late at night, the federal reserve released minutes from its rate-setting meeting at the end of January this year, in which fed members agreed that the threat of a new outbreak of pneumonia required close attention, The current outbreak has created uncertainty about the outlook. Although there is no clear need for interest rate cuts, there is also caution about the economic outlook. Interest rates are expected to remain low for a long time. Gold prices stabilized again late at night. The three major U.S. stock indexes also continued to hit new highs, with the dollar in hot demand and the yen down more than 100 points, a rare move in recent years. The euro has fallen to the 1.08 mark; Dollar believes in the short term has the possibility of 100, euro, yen, commodity currency short-term trend is not optimistic.   But despite a stronger dollar, enthusiasm for gold has not waned. I had expected that the people's bank of China would cut interest rates to stimulate the economy. In fact, with the exception of China, almost all the top 10 industrial countries are under pressure to cut interest rates in the short term, which has reduced the cost of holding gold, reduced the purchasing power of silver paper and highlighted the value of gold. This supports the medium-term rally in gold prices. Technically, gold's breakthrough early in the week had been confirmed as a medium-term rally, but after hitting the psychological $1,600 barrier and testing to the highs of the year, Began to appear consolidation demand, high did not see continued buying immediately pushed up, gold prices should be back to buy, do not use the high market to chase the goods.

2020-02-19

The U.S. dollar rose in line with gold as markets resumed for a long holiday, while U.S. stocks retreated sharply and gold prices rose to a seven-year high. On the other hand, the euro fell to a near three-year low and gold rose above the 1600 mark. Although still attractive, the market can continue to profit first and then buy on the dips. The President of the United States is on vacation, The market was relatively active, and the gold price stabilized above 1584 in the early stage. Technically, it has stabilized at 1580, breaking through the upward resistance and consolidation level. Gold extended the upside, so early selling pressure has been rare, gold prices rely on steady gains.   The new crown pneumonia outbreak has not yet removed the threat to the global market, risk aversion increased. Gold last night hit a near seven-year high of $1,604.80 at the close, It last closed above $1,600 on March 27, 2013. The market is digesting the impact of the new outbreak of pneumonia on enterprises, and technology giant apple has issued a warning. Earnings for the march quarter will be lower than expected, dragging down the big three indexes. Reached the United States city, gold prices up through the 1600 barrier, this morning to see gold prices continued to stabilize. But the dollar also rose in tandem, with the euro falling to a near three-year low of $1.08, the pound also falling below $1.3, the euro losing ground across the board and the U.S. -weighted index stabilizing above $99. Will again approach the 100 mark. Expectations of the European central bank's negative interest rate policy are starting to rise, but looking back on recent upbeat U.S. economic data and an upbeat outlook from fed chairman colin Powell, The euro has come under pressure against the dollar as the European central bank has been counting on fiscally rich governments to increase market stimulus to ease policy pressure on the European central bank. As Europe's economy continues to slide, markets believe the European central bank will continue to cut interest rates. Abn amro said it expects the ECB to cut rates by another 0.1 percent to -0.6 percent.   And increased bond purchases to 40 billion euros a month from 20 billion euros, putting the euro under heavy pressure. The trend of dollar and gold strengthening at the same time will continue with the release of us PPI data tonight, but more importantly late into the night when the FOMC releases the minutes of last month's rate-setting meeting. Although the fed held rates steady last month, the shift to a more dovish fed has also raised expectations among investors that the central bank will adopt more accommodative monetary policy. The record of last month's meeting will give investors more insight. Gold prices remain on the upside, but as they have built up some gains, it is recommended to take some profits first and buy on the dips.